Reflection on Totalitarianism

Contemporaneous with the debate on Rules for Torture, this morning we consider the irony of a government, a state, which, while reserving the right to spy upon its citizens, imprison them without trial, lawyer, or charges, outsource them to other countries for torture, and sets up its own gulag, holds itself up as the embodiment of individual rights, liberty and freedom. That there is actually a debate on what kinds of torture to allow (admittedly, after the fact , considering that many have already been tortured on the Emperor's orders, in the most despicable manner [note: Chaos implores you not to read the last link, unless your gastronomic constitution is robust]) is almost beyond comprehension to a being of Chaos' age; younger sentients may be more inured to the phenomenon. Chaos can only echo the amazement felt recently, when the Emperor in passing admitted to maintaining "secret CIA prisons", to scant attention in the public arena. Somehow this phrase seems to echo in Chaos' conciousness, along with the inevitable corollary that the overstuffed citizens of this declining state by their silence think that celebrity babies, female news anchors, and the activities of various sports teams are of far greater importance. Not too much of a stretch to conclude that the evil fascists who head the government are merely the authorized reflection of the people who allow them their power.

Monnnnnkeeee!!!

Try this video and laugh, courtesy of Youtube, Chaos, Darwinian from The Oil Drum, and Gaia...

Would You Like to Know More?

Hey, remember in the film Starship Troopers (you know, the one that combined the biggest bug hunt of all time with a tongue-in-cheek World War II theme) when the recruiting commercials flashed on the "join the military and become a citizen" thingie? Well, Chaos is happy to report that life does imitate art here in the Empire. Seems that the all-volunteer military is having, well, some recruitment problems. Citizens are becoming more reluctant to join up to go to Iraq or Afghanistan, and the overstretched military has lowered its standards, taking in high school dropouts, felons, skinheaded racists, gang members and older folks. Imaginative recruiters have now focused on noncitizens, with the predictable reward for enlisting (along with a bucket of cash) easy, no-cost citizenship. The Emperor signed an executive order offering citizenship after one day of military service. Now that's an armed forces citizens of the Empire can be proud of.

Support the troops...

Dmitry Orlov Has Some Advice...

Chaos heartily recommended this writer a few months ago, and he has now started a three-parter on Life After The Oil Crash on advice for the collapse-aware resident of the Empire. In Dmitry's inimitable style, these pieces make for entertaining reading, both for the valuable content and the unsparing view of this country from one who has lived in the original Evil Empire and observed its collapse. Part One of this primer is here; Part Two is here, Part Three is here. (You may have to load this up in Internet Explorer if the links don't work well in Firefox...)

The Empire Devolves to Theocracy

If you are at all concerned about how much influence the fundamentalist christians have gained over policy and government the last few years, here's a nice site to check up on those devoted followers of the blood cult. Interesting link on the site leads one to the "Texas GOP Platform," wherein one learns some really scary stuff about what 'real' Republicans believe. (Even scarier if you actually live in the state). It baldly proclaims, for example, that "our party pledges to assert its influence...to dispell the 'myth' of separation of church and state." Doesn't get any clearer than that, and as a reflection of what people in this country actually believe, it is simply another day in the Empire as now changed utterly from just a few years ago.

Suggested reading: American Theocracy

Funniest Dieoff Article Ever!

A special fall treat: how very rare it is that a writer can combine humor and the coming dieoff of humanity in one piece, but here it is, courtesy of the estimable Joe Bageant.
Money quote: "All of which drives me nuts because the nearly visible end of civilization strikes me as worthy of at least modest discussion. You'd think so. But the mention of it causes my wife to go into 'Oh, Joe, can't we talk about something more pleasant?' And talk about causing weird stares and dropped jaws at the office water cooler." Great stuff, and if you like it, try some more of Joe's essays, wherein you may learn that Joe is at least attempting to walk the walk, by adopting a Belizean family and building them a little bed and breakfast (although foresightedly reserving the privelege of staying there on occasion). Funny, funny man.

Global Warming Update: Say Goodbye To The Northern Forests

As forecast in An Inconvenient Truth (and shame on you if you've not seen it), the northern forests of the Pacific Northwest are now succumbing to the ever-increasing human-induced global rising temperatures. As noted, some of these trees have lived successfully for the last one thousand years, but they cannot survive humanity's desire to drive a monster SUV to the grocery store. How oddly the article is titled: "Cascades' Reddened Forests Signal Threat to Humans;" Chaos suggests "Humanity's Growth Signals Threat to the Entire Planet," but perhaps that would understandably irritate the source newspaper's advertisers, wouldn't it? Besides, the sheep do not want to read such provocative stuff...oh well.

Suggested reading:
(basic) The Revenge of Gaia
(advanced) Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change

9/11 Edition: Where Are We Now?

Sadly, many words are currently being wasted on "remembrances" of this event now receding into history. Few (of the words) deserve to live. Clearer voices on this day are provided to us by the estimable Tom Englehardt (whose post today features an article by Ira Chernus, who remarks upon how the event sanctioned the creation of an enemy, which the American nation so desperately needed to reinforce its own identity and had been searching for, if unconciously, since the fall of the Berlin Wall), and Immanuel Wallerstein, who notes that the undeniable fact that Empire has been losing ground (i.e., power and influence) pretty steadily the more force and violence it employs around the world, and speculates upon future adventures, based in part on more desperation (and right wing politics). Chaos would also point to the announced strategy of ubervillian Osama bin Laden, who quite rightly was advised that the Empire would respond to attacks with a "cowboy mentality," and play directly to the Muslim world's preconceptions that Americans would invade their lands and take their oil. For further reading on the weakness of violence and the ability of small groups to defend their own lands, see The Unconquerable World, a stoutly written work of vast explanatory power.

Another Bon Mot From Rummy

Hi Don! Who's that you're shaking hands with? Oh, that's right: Saddam was "our guy" back in the 80s. Didn't we give him a few weapons of mass destruction?
Oh bother!

What have you been up to lately? Ah, I see; accusing critics of the Iraq adventure of "appeasement of a new kind of fascism." Boy, that takes nerve! But you're up to it, I'm sure. You must be immune to cognitive dissonance. Good thing the public has such a short memory.

What a Wonderful World: The Happy Planet Index

Well, on one level this is a rather droll novelty, but it makes intuitive sense, once one thinks about it: let's rank the countries of the world according to an "index of happiness," derived by mutliplying life satisfaction by life expectancy and divided by ecological footprint. And how does the Empire rate? Read it and weep. For explanation, the US has a MASSIVE ecological footprint, and not a particularly high life expectancy (the infant mortality rate is the highest among Western nations, don't you know...) so it is ranked 150th, alongside Lithuania, Cote d'Ivoire, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and other fine examples. Nothing like a little happy news to start the week. Oh, and the happiest countries? Vanuatu, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Panama.

Overpopulation Trumps All

Another in Chaos' "Nutshell" series when a short article appears on the net that offers a much better synopsis than could Chaos' meager skills. Jeffrey D. Sachs, director of Earthwatch Institute, Columbia University, explains just why we need to lower our fertility rate. Faithful readers are not likely to be surprised, but it certainly bears repeating: most if not all of human problems on this planet could be mitigated or solved with a dramatic fall in population.

The World In a Nutshell

This poster to The Oil Drum summarizes the human dilemma much better than Chaos could at this very moment:

"What are you willing to do to change things in the Future?" Ultimately most here and elsewhere are not willing to do enough. For all the knowledge that is present on this board, wisdom is woefully lacking. Like the allopathic doctors that keep the westerner alive, the symptom reigns supreme over addressing the cause of the disease. Peak oil (a facet of resource depletion), like global warming, overpopulation and ecosystem destruction are symptoms of humanity's inability to recognise the limits of its host to support life and organise accordingly. In the end, the one question that has yet to be asked, and really should before any other, is how long do we really want to provide for the survival of humanity? If we want to make it until the sun reaches the far end of its life-cycle and begins to consume everything in its path during its red dwarf phase, we need to return to a stone age existence. If we want to live a little higher on the hog for somewhat less than a few billion years, we can attempt a form of iron age existence. If we want to survive less than a millennia further, we can approach any of the combination of silver bb's currently in vogue herein. All of the silver bb's use finite resources. No amount of recycling is going to get around the fact that sooner or later, sooner being the operative word, all that is basically mine-able will have been. Now couple that with the nature of ultisation rendering a percentage of each round of mining unrecoverable/unusable beyond one life cycle, and you have a recipe for disaster, not sustainability. It is a basic condition of wants being pursued instead of needs. The desire to continue this way of life at present is wrought out of a fear of loss. Life is fun now. Life is fulfilling now. Life can be fulfilling with a lot less. Just as we can talk about going through our stuff and paring down to fit into a smaller living space and find it rewarding, we can go through the trappings of modernity and do likewise and feel likewise. Science and its progeny technology are pursuits to satisfy curiosity. I will posit, so what? Do we really need to know anything more about the nature of matter for humanity to be complete? We could, with what is left of finite energy resources, embark upon a powering down that would result in a fully rewarding lifestyle that preserves knowledge, gives us a full enough understanding of existence and insures that humanity can successfully ride out the planet's life-cycle for a very long time. But that would require sacrificing our addiction to technology, a wholly unnecessary part of what it means to live and exist. For disclosure, I am not some doomer luddite hiding in the woods with a hoard of guns and beans. I am a degreed librarian at a R1 institute. I have utilised my education in researching the calories per capita per year consumption and compared it to the silver bb's potential for utilisation. I have researched the impact of continued mining of finite resources required for widget production. I have studied the history of the rise of civilisation and its attendant impacts. My life will not see the worst of PO and the mad dash to interject silver bb's. But my life is more than the total of its days. Even though I choose not to have children, I have a responsibility to those who will inhabit this planet after me. You do too. To that end, why are we not choosing to sustain needs as opposed to wants?

Middle East Conflagration Update: The Limits of Force

As we sail on directly towards the shoals of ever increasing entropy, it might be helpful to review the current situation in Lebanon. As most are aware, the Israeli Defense (!) Forces used the kidnapping of a couple of soldiers by guerrilla group Hezbollah (Chaos uses the most familiar spelling: there are many others...) to launch an all-out attack on the entire country, giving new meaning to the phrase "collective guilt," and in the process, abandoning the high moral ground, to the extent they had ever occupied it in the first place. Egged on in secret by the Empire, which evidently viewed this "exercise" as a dry run for a future invasion of Iran, the Israelis tried their own version of "shock and awe," which, come to think of it, worked about as well as when the Empire tried it back in 2003. Having accomplished the uniting of Lebanon the country behind the "greatest guerilla force in the world," along with the rest of the Arab world (which was initially reluctant to embrace the Shiite-led group), Israel was surprised to find themselves walking into a buzzsaw, having seriously underestimated the capabilities of the enemy. Further surprises ensued when rockets were fired into Israeli cities, and Hezbollah fighters inflicted significant causalties on the invaders. Bombing the infrastructure of Lebanon and killing many innocents in hopes of the population "blaming" Hezbollah were equally ineffective tactics. Hezbollah, not to be outdone, has now sewn up its victory by heading up the reconstruction of the bombed out areas. All in all, a good set of innings for the home team. Here's hoping Israel can learn a lesson the Empire cannot: people tend to resist being invaded. The mightiest military on the planet can be stymied by a small band of "insurgents," especially when the guerillas have the support of some of the population. Seems simple, no?

Pest Patrol

"Buddha Pest Control--we don't kill, we just shoo them away..."

You Can't Say That! (And Why Not...)

Here is a somewhat long but eminently readable essay on the underlying assumptions the members of a society make and how those members "edit" their thoughts and statements. (Chaos recognizes this lively essay deserves a much more enthusiastic introduction, but appropriate words are difficult at this very moment...). To summarize, the subject is "what can't you say" in polite society, and why are there some things that are socially unacceptable (or "inappropriate") to utter. What are some things that you believe that you might be afraid to say? (How about "I am an atheist, and proud of it" to start?) Why are you afraid to say such things? What reason might people have in discouraging such talk? These interesting questions are addressed in unique fashion. Try it, you'll like it.

Interlude: When Soundtracks Outlast Their Origin

Can anyone doubt that Theme From S.W.A.T has outlasted the actual show? Anyone remember anything at all about the TV series?

American Values #5: The Empire as World Armorer

One of the few products the United States still manufactures in these waning days is weaponry for the world. The Empire is the number one exporter of weapons ($18.55 billion in 2005); its nearest competitor is--no surprise--Russia, with $4 billion in yearly sales. This article, courtesy of the erudite and excellent TomDispatch, is eye-opening, to say the least. Although the US ostensibly allows weapons exports to countries consistent with its own interests, the reality is much different, at least to the extent that the Empire supposedly promotes "freedom and democracy" abroad; dictatorships and totalitarian regimes are well-supplied and sometimes two sides in conflict (e.g., Pakistan and India) are both sold the same weapons systems. Good stuff; thank you, Tom.

Best Peak Oil Article Ever; Read It and Weep

The Chicago Tribune has come out with perhaps the finest piece in memory on the subject of peak oil. The reporter follows the trail of oil back from a convenience store in Chicago's suburbs to its many sources, including Iraq, Venezuela, and Nigeria, along the way interviewing the "small" people who are affected/addicted to oil. Chaos can do little justice with inadequate words to describe how amazing this article (with even more effective accompanying video; pay attention to the "oil used since you started watching" timer) is, considering the MSM's (mainstream media) previous silence or lame attempts to portray the issue. Chaos has little hope that the Fatherland's citizenry will wake up to this looming crisis, but interesting it is to follow the progression.

Tuna Becomes Extinct in the Med

For those who have been following the issue, this latest is no surprise: bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean, previously numerous enough to constitute a tourist attraction, are down 80% and expected to become extinct due to overfishing. The ultimate cause, as well, is no surprise to faithful readers or those who are familiar with Dr. Bartlett's work: the sheer weight of human populations naturally produces this result (along with many others; the visibility of the vanishing tuna is why this article appears; smaller, yet still compelling examples can easily be found). What Chaos finds depressing about this is the inevitability: population control will not take hold in time for species extinction, wildlife habitat destruction, arable land desertification, pollution of air water and soil, human conflict and dieoff.

Entropy Rules in the Middle East

(Sigh) Where to begin? On a day when the most volatile region of the world is aflame with ancient and contemporary hatred, bombs, rockets and machine gun fire aplenty, perhaps it is appropriate to revisit that 'bottomless catastrophe,' Iraq. Courtesy of The London Times, a viewpoint readers in the Empire aren't likely to encounter, it seems that residents of the city of Baghdad have givnen up the struggle and are streaming out of the country in droves (well, more like 800,000, creating the largest group of refugees on the planet). The relentless sectarian warfare defies American and Iraqi government efforts at "reconciliation," a concept foreign to religious zealots.

American Values #4: We Have No Friends, Anymore

Yes, it's true: Americans now have fewer friends than 20 years ago. A study published in American Sociology Review finds that close friends are down, and people who have no one to confide in are up to the tune of 25%. For those who believe that the country will soon face major challenges in energy and resource depletion, this trend is not encouraging. Perhaps friends in other countries will fill the breach? Think again, as the Empire's image continues to fall worldwide. Even staunch supporters like Japan have rethought their previously sympathetic position. Ich bein ein berliner, indeed.

The Long View: David Price

To pull back from our at-the-moment perspective, the essay of Dr. David Price on Energy and Human Evolution, although now clearly dated, begs our attention. Since the "reality-based" life forms among us have already embraced the process of the Origin of Species, a remaining question is why? Price provides the answers here: our species, the most efficient user of energy on Earth, evolved in response to the vast amounts of energy (carbon) stored on the planet. Humanity's use of fire and fossil fuels has accelerated this use of energy. As the energy is consumed, human populations have exploded; overshoot and dieoff is now inevitable, much like the behavior of yeast in sugar or the reindeer of St. Matthew Island. Fossil fuels are now being used up 100,000 times faster than they are being formed. (Perhaps this is why talk of "sustainability" makes Chaos uncomfortable...) Similarly, the decline in human population given this context is evidence of eventual collapse, since per-capita energy growth has now come to a standstill. Price believes that the collapse will be marked by havoc caused by starvation, social strife, and disease, all of which interact in multiple and complex ways to cause dieoff of most, but perhaps not all, of the human population. Have a nice day, gentle readers.

Chaos

An Immigration Interlude: Don't Confuse the Issues With Facts!

To briefly interrupt our exploration of American values, let us now consider the oft-cited work of Harvard scholars Borjas and Katz, who have produce this paper on the history of (mostly Hispanic) immigration and its consequences to the Empire. Chaos has watched the demagogery on both sides of this issue escalate to extreme levels, without corresponding understanding or historical context. To the contrary, emotion seems to be the main driver of the progress, if any, of this issue, a fine recipe for polarization (does this sound familar? abortion, perhaps? look at the progress that's been made on that one...). Chaos suggests a more fact and data-based approach, as exemplified by the cited article, might dampen the hysteria levels. Alas, not much of a market for rational discourse exists in the prevailing climate.

American Values #3: Living Within Our Means

Once upon a time, American citizens saved a portion of their income. Likewise, their government was a net creditor to other nations, exporting more than it imported. Over the last fifteen years or so, these conditions are no longer so. The Empire is now a debtor nation, relying upon foreign central banks to accept and hold large numbers of dollars and exporting less than it imports (other than food and weapons, what is the Empire actually producing these days? Wags say that the buying and selling of homes to each other now constitutes the major portion of the country's economy...). Similarly, the US savings rate has fallen from 7.5% to below zero in that time period. The practice of using one's home as an ATM has long been noted as unsustainable, an effect of an asset (real estate) bubble. As with most things, there is usually an unpleasant day of reckoning: in this case, the gradual decline of the dollar relative to other currencies, a very slow--so as not to cause a crash--shift away by the foreign central banks, and a steep rise in foreclosures as interest rates begin their inevitable rise. This will come at a particularly inopportune time: the Empire will need more funds to keep afloat. Let us once again note that this is only the beginning as the Empire and its citizens rediscover reality with an extended visit to the House of Pain: Social Security and Medicare are going to begin paying out more than they take in as the bulging Boomer generation retires in a financial fog, believing that a magical, mythical pension will appear and take care of them. Chaos believes that this generation still has lessons to (re)learn, particularly about getting something for nothing and "old fashioned" values like thrift.

American Values #2: Civil Rights

The issue of deteriorating civil rights of the Empire's citizens (with, for the most part, their willing acquiescence) is not a new one, and may in part be explained as a somewhat inevitable consequence of increasing population. (Let us recall a "Bartlettism": more people=less freedom). Just last week, however, a further "breakthough" in the downward spiral appeared, in the form of the newly constituted Supreme Court's decision to throw out a 50 year precedent of excluding evidence obtained by police in violation of Constitutional rights (known, appropriately enough, as the "exclusionary rule"). It is considered by legal scholars that the sanction of exclusion of evidence serves as a, and perhaps the only, legal deterrent to police misconduct (Scalia's feeble attempt to portray police disciplinary action and civil rights lawsuits as viable remedies only points out how far from reality this opinion strays). At any rate, a significant step in the devolution of freedom, and aside from a few stories and even fewer protests, this decision has since sunk below the surface of the national "pool" of conversation. Chaos can only conclude that the citizens of the Empire have reached the point of no return in somnolence. Civil rights are gradually going extinct, as surely as the buffalo.

American Values #1: Free and Fair Elections

Recently the Emperor, while vainly trying to end the impasse on immigration, remarked to a group of would-be citizens that immigrants "should learn American values" if they want to stay here. Which got Chaos to thinking: exactly what are these "American values" anyway? Not the ones that Chaos grew up with, but the ones exhibited now. To that end, here's the first one: elections untainted by rigging, tampering, vote manipulation, and various other skullduggery. Surely that is an American value if there ever was one. Well, not really so much, as those who have subscriptions to Rolling Stone and/0r spend way too much time surfing the Web have recently discovered. A blazing indictment of the 2004 Presidential election, particularly in the battleground state of Ohio, written by Robert F. Kennedy,Jr.,has caused those of us who pay attention to realize that free and fair elections here in the Empire are only a sometime thing. Since the silence of the mainstream media and the public is somewhat deafening, one can only conclude that untainted elections are more or less a thing of the past. More explorations of American values will follow.

Peak Oil Hits the Comedy Circuit

Here's proof that being a doomer doesn't mean you can't laugh...Robert Newman's very funny take (if you're into British humor) on the last 80 years or so of oil and the Middle East. Chaos apologizes in advance to those who don't have the "high speed connection" necessary, but it's worth the wait.

Hurricanes Wipe Out Oil Production: US Vulnerable

Here's an excellent and sober synopsis, done by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, of just how dependent the US Empire is on foreign oil, and why. In brief: all our oil "partners" have major supply/political/logistical problems, and the only growing source of new US oil production comes from the Gulf of Mexico, which is vulnerable to (you guessed it) hurricanes, which are on the rise, along with the temperatures. Makes for a pretty picture: peak oil, and its evil twin, global warming.

Climber Dies On Everest; Population Control

"As you put more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears..."
--Dr. Albert Bartlett

If Chaos' faithful readers (are there any?) have kept up with our journey towards greater and greater entropy, they have come across this lecture by Dr. Albert Bartlett on the inevitable consequences of exponential growth in a world of finite resources. (To those of you who still believe that the Earth's resources are in effect, infinite, you are quite behind and need to catch up--Chaos suggests you read January 12, 2006's post and watch the video link provided therein). The most profound observation of Bartlett's, however, deals with the effects of population growth: "democracy cannot survive overpopulation...human dignity cannot survive overpopulation." Bartlett uses a metaphor: two people in an apartment with two bathrooms, you have "freedom of the bathroom." Twenty people in the apartment, you can't have freedom of the bathroom, no matter how much people believe in the freedom of the bathroom. Fast forward to today's paper of record, in which a climber on Everest died (of exposure, Chaos assumes) whilst some 40 other climbers simply walked on by. The contrast between the first summit in 1953 and today is stunning: Sir Edmund Hilary is quoted as stating that climbers today just don't get it; there was no possibility of anyone in his party, had they been injured, being left behind on the original expedition. Chaos can think of no more compelling example of the disastrous consequences of overpopulation than this.

An Assault on the School System!

This is just too rich to pass up....seems a couple of mischievous high-schoolers thought it funny to serve up some marijuana-laced brownies to teachers in Dallas. What do you suppose were the end results of this juvenile prank? If you guessed "assault on a public servant--third degree felony prosecution" congratulations, you probably live in Texas or one of the equally red states, because that's just what happened. Curiously, it's the "fringe" events like this that persuade Chaos that a sentient force of nature would perhaps be happier in different locales (Costa Rica, New Zealand, Canada, and the French countryside come to mind).

The Gas Price Fiasco Continues, GM XLT Edition

Since stupid people do not understand complex problems, and since the Empire's automobile companies have been part of the problem and not, at any time, the solution, here's the latest entry in the "you just can't make this stuff up" department. The sadly sagging General Motors, whose fortunes have been shall we say, less than stellar, has come up with perhaps the worst response to the growing twilight of oil imaginable: The General proposes to pay the difference in price of gasoline above $1.99 per gallon for one year to buyers of grotesquely sized Suburbans, Yukon XLs, Hummers, and slowww-selling Buick Lacrosses. Chaos has had no formal business training, but suspects a move like this foreshadows extreme desperation and eventual bankruptcy.

A Word (Or Two) From James Lovelock

Chaos recently mentioned James Lovelock and his book, The Revenge of Gaia, in a collapse-themed post. Currently the work is unavailable in the US, but here's a nice column from the author, which Chaos supposes captures the essence of the book. (Of course, this is from a British newspaper; the likelihood of this appearing in a major US news outlet is slim at best). Chaos would point out that the analogy of Gaia to a living organism is only that, although Lovelock appears to have carried it so far as to believe it literally.

Scuba Divers Unite! Coral Endangered

Here's another boring global warming article, centered on the Florida Keys...seems that staghorn and elkhorn coral were recently added to the threatened species list of the Endangered Species Act. Of the many reasons these corals are threatened, the most prominent is "bleaching" caused by rising ocean temperatures caused by (you guessed it) human climatological activities. Chaos supposes that the planet in the future will be much much hotter and much more barren. (Sigh) What we give up to drive our SUVs...

Views of Collapse: Christy Rodgers

"Impossible to predict, the future is."
--Yoda

The voices of the end of civilization and its resulting effects have long been noted here, specifically those of Jared Diamond and James Howard Kunstler. Now Christy Rodgers, an internet being previously unknown to Chaos, takes on these influential prognosticators, in this extended review, along with one apparently unavailable in the US, James Lovelock, author of The Revenge of Gaia. Rodgers effectively skewers both Diamond and Kunstler for their foibles; in Diamond's case it is a starry-eyed emphasis on "balance" between pessimism and optimism, the delusion that the "public" will collectively act to deal with our environmental unsustainability and a refusal to treat the present with the same rigor as his analysis of past collapses, while Rodgers saves most of her vitriol for Kunstler, who presents a set of "sketchily researched laundry list" of converging catastrophes as fact, while in general, projecting his own paranoia and prejudices into his predictions (we all remember the invading Asian pirates!). Rodgers review of Lovelock is similar: the man predicts the violent revenge of the planet for the insults done to it by humans unconcerned with their ultimate environmental effects. As Rodgers notes, this doesn't give a potential audience much to be hopeful about. As far as Chaos is aware, this is the most thoughtful critique of collapse theory at the moment, and well worth perusal (especially if you've read some of the works). Kunstler has always made Chaos somewhat uncomfortable, especially the firmness (and sometimes outrageousness) of his predictions. Likewise, Diamond's almost deliberate slighting of the effects of peak oil seems calculated to produce an untowardly optimistic result. Chaos wonders how Rodgers would view Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Civilizations.

Return From Holiday; Final Words on Gas Prices

Chaos begs pardon from faithful readers, having been on holiday and personally witnessed a portion of the devolution of the airline industry (there is now, apparently, an extra charge of $25 for 'overweight' bags, forcing Chaos to squat humiliatingly in front of the ticket counter, removing heavy items from said bag). Along with charging more for aisle seats, and attempts to develop standing room only "seats," this marks the beginning of the end of easy air travel.

Upon return, Chaos was fortunate enough to come across this exceptionally well-written open letter to the public on gas prices, courtesy of the aptly named EngineerPoet. Chaos has really nothing to add to this, save that for the chosen few, this letter will never reach its intended audience. So, fellow travelers, count yourselves among the rare and fortunate.

It's Time to...Pray for Lower Gas Prices!!

Oh, you just can't make this stuff up...according to this group, many people are "overlooking the power of prayer when it comes to resolving this energy crisis." Well then, why not have a nationwide prayer meeting to bring those gosh darn gas prices down? Guess it ranks right up there with the "magic" of ethanol to save all of us from our energy sins. These are probably the same people who believe in praying for their professional football/baseball/hockey team to win. When it comes to peak oil, it isn't the geology, it's the psychology that will insure the fate of human folk. A massive amount of denial (i.e., we're still in the "river"stage) is going to have to be wrung out of the citizens of the Empire, and it's only just starting. Is there a politician willing to tell the truth to the people of the nation? Chaos finds it highly doubtful.

We Must Do Something About These Evil Oil Companies!!

The level of discourse in this country, as Chaos has observed previously, has reached new lows in obtuseness. "You can't fix stupid," said a recent downhome wit, and it is true. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the recent reaction (on the part of the public and the corresponding politicians) to high oil prices. For those hoping that events will shock the citizens of the Empire out of their slumber, the resulting debate is profoundly depressing. Chaos is not about to stupefy you with further examples; instead, we have a ray of hope. The editors of The Oil Drum have responded with one of the finest statements of our current energy situation one could ever hope for. Chaos implores, no, begs you to read this. It is the blade with which you may slice through all the bovine excrement which passes for a national conversation in this benighted nation.

Filling Your Tank With Freedom: The SUV Driver

Since oil prices have skyrocketed to new highs recently, and political pandering by mendacious politicians has also reached a new "peak," Chaos came across this rather amusing Q&A the other day, courtesy of The Oil Drum. Enjoy!

A Buffett of Sound Financial Advice

Perhaps the finest stock picker and financial wizard in the land is a modest, unassuming elderly fellow from Omaha, Nebraska. Chaos is speaking, of course, of Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha." His longterm record with the company he owns, BerkshireHathaway, is far and away superior than any that come to mind. Buffett is a value investor, buying companies that are fundamentally sound, undervalued, and holding them for decades. The antithesis of most financial advisors today, his every utterance is scrutinized with the same attention one usually finds lavished on the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Where that gentleman is paid to obscure, however, Buffett delights in plain speaking. This extended windup is to introduce Chaos' faithful readers to Buffett's annual report, wherein he recaps the previous year's results and offers a few cogent insights. Here it is: those not actually holding the shares (at $19,000 per share, Chaos didn't think anyone here had some...) may want to scroll down to around page 17 to get Buffett's take on the US current account deficit. Think it's a coincidence Buffett has invested in euros and a large amount of silver? Chaos believes that the US dollar will soon be exposed to entropy; overseas investments are strongly recommended.

Another Reason Why Oil Prices Won't Decline

As the leader of the fastest growing economy on the planet visits the Empire, it might be worth a look to consider just how much oil China needs to sustain its riotous growth. Here's a nice chart that gives anyone alert to the problem the shivers. You read it here first: global competition for oil will be a new experience for the Empire and its fuelish citizens, who consider the right to pilot outlandishly appointed land yachts a constitutional birthright. Here's an investment to back it up: the first exchange traded fund based on the price of oil opened this week. (BTW, the analysis in the article linked is flawed: oil is "coming off a peak?" Don't think so.)

The Music Begins to Slow Down: Better Grab a Chair

It seems that oil prices have finally risen to the point where they are having effects on prices...yes, the dreaded "inflation" is now kicking in. Wholesale prices rose in March at an annualized rate of 6%. This is not the outcome desired by the economic tinkerers at the Federal Reserve, who will undoubtedly choose to continue raising interest rates. Those prepared souls who have defensively invested in commodities such as energy, metals, currencies, and inflation-protected bonds are well-positioned to thrive in these choppy waters, while those who think that the bankrupt Empire can continue to party indefinitely will begin to feel the pain as things start to unwind. Too young to remember the painful "stagflation" of the 70s? The beauty of the internet is that you can now read about it.

Flyer You Can Print and Take Home

Contributed by a member of crudeawkening.org, here's a nice printable summary of why "the world as you know it is about to end." On the day that the Nemesis of the Empire announced its uranium-enrichment capability, Chaos is feeling a bit, well, doomerish. Perhaps it is being surrounded by gargantuan gas hogs to and from the angst-inducing exurbs, or the groaning of the planet as it struggles to support too many humans, each of whom dreams of spewing more and more carbon into the atmosphere so that they may possess the latest fake goods for their fake lifestyles, but the cliff seems ever closer. One suggestion: check out Jay Hanson's site for a bracing shot of reality.

Yep, Texas Billionaires "Get" Peak Oil Too

This item came out quite a while ago (December 2005 issue of Fortune) but it's still worth reading. For those who don't "know" Senor Rainwater, he was instrumental in amassing the $50 billion Bass family fortune, along with helping the current Emperor purchase a sports team in Fort Worth, Texas a few years ago (the "Texas Rangers," Chaos thinks). Simply put, the man has made his fortune by being able to divine future trends and take advantage of them, and now he's scared stiff of peak oil. If you think subscribers to this "theory" are just rogue scientists, internet crackpots, and minor sentient forces of nature like Chaos, you are sadly mistaken.

Too Funny Videos, Courtesy of GM

Watch these fast, before they are yanked by the clueless ad agency that thought up this campaign. Seems that anyone can make their own Chevy Tahoe commercial, using tools and clips from this site. As you might imagine, some very creative people over at Gristmill have made some very funny commercials, although perhaps not in the spirit GM would like. Try this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this. After you've finished laughing, kindly reflect upon how great is the divide between those who have taken the "red pill" and awakened to the reality of resource depletion and those who remain clueless (hint: Chaos is not speaking of the ad agency...).

Growth Poleaxes Africa; The Death of Farming

If you like the phrase "starving children in Africa," don't worry, it'll be around and in use for quite a long time. Today's news reveals that overfarming in that dark heart of the planet has rendered 75% of arable land unusable, "afflicting" 240 million souls with hunger (whatever that means...probably some reporters required usage when writing about starvation). Essentially, no crop rotation and little rest for the soil is a formula for disaster in agriculture. (So is overuse of nitrogen-based fertilizers, but that's another story). The study recommends modern "Green Revolution" techniques, brought upon by copious donations (because lack of infrastructure makes transportation very expensive) from Western nations. Interestingly, the story is absolutely devoid of any mention of the underlying problem: too much population growth. Chaos suggests that a population control program would be far more sustainable, at least in a world of limited resources. Neither the reporter of the story nor the authors of the study referenced therein were able or willing to challenge the structural underpinnings of modern society. For clarity, here it is again: if the human inhabitants of Gaia do not stop unlimited growth and the corresponding overconsumption of its limited resources, Gaia will teach them to, in her own harsh way.

Your Constitutional Right to Drive (And Others You Didn't Know About)

Hey, guess what? Citizens of the Empire may have a few more constitutional rights than they realize. At least some of them(17%) believe that the US Constitution gives them the right to drive a car, and a higher percentage (21%) think that they have a constitutional right to own a pet. Less than 1% could name the actual five protected rights: freedom of speech, religion, the press, assembly and to petition the government. On the other hand, 20% could name Bart, Homer, and three other members of the Simpson family. Chaos supposes this is why citizens have so willingly acquiesced in the current government's theft of rights: too much tv. Many serious events are now scheduled to occur in the next few years, only a few of which have been touched upon here. The somnolent citizenry is utterly unequipped to even understand them, much less to take action. As one commentator stated, "don't get too far away from the chairs, you don't know when the music is going to stop."

Have Breakfast With Tom, Please

Tomdispatch, run by the erudite and articulate Tom Englehardt, is a highly recommended stop on the Internet superhighway, especially for valuable perspective on the Iraq War and the Empire. Check out today's post for a different take on peak oil and breakfast, by Chad Heeter. Think you're "doing the right thing" by eating organic? Maybe not so much. Chaos noted with surprise the shocking similarity of Chad's breakfast to Chaos'. An interesting reflection on how truly dependent the Empire is on black gold...

Back to the Future, Again: Climate Change

Another day, another study finding that things are going to get worse than anyone thought. Published today in Science (no, not some crackpot journal), the paper indicates that sea levels are set to rise in response to polar ice cap melting. The result will be conditions last seen 129,00 years ago. "If we don't like the idea of flooding out New Orleans, major portions of South Florida, and other valued parts of the coastal U.S., we will have to commit soon to a major effort to stop most emissions of carbon to the atmostphere." So sayeth David Peck, author of the study. Major effort? Soon? The government ignores, while the public slumbers, dreaming of who will bear Brad Pitt's baby and what's on sale at Sprawl Mart next week. South Florida always seemed kind of trashy anyway.

The Meme of Peak Oil

What is a meme? In short, it is a self-propagating unit of cultural evolution, resembling somewhat a gene. An evolving idea of significance, in other words. The study of memes is called memetics. It might be more easily understood alongside the aphorism "ideas have a life of their own." A fuller explanation of this slippery noun can be found here. Chaos has observed in the last half year or so, how the concept of peak oil has gradually acquired the status of a meme. Recently, two more examples have surfaced. The first is at the nation's cable news network of note, CNN, which ran some brief video interviews (one with Matthew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert) under the title of "We Were Warned." (BTW, check out General Motors whore Bob Lutz, whose "we just make these giant SUVs because Americans want them" and "we got caught with our pants down on the hybrid thing" are classic). The second comes from the Austin Texas South by Southwest Music and Film festival, which featured in this year's addition a striking documentary called Oilcrash. Regretfully, Chaos cannot provide a firsthand account of it, but according to actual viewers, it is appropriately fear-inducing. Look for it at your local megaplex someday soon.

And so, the meme of peak oil advances, grows, becomes stronger...

The Empire Becomes the Glass House

The US State Department issued its annual report on human rights around the world, specifically excoriating China for its "poor" record, noting instances of "harassment, detention, and imprisonment" of those opposing the government. Also noted were torture, physical abuse leading to deaths of detainees, forced labor, coercive birth policies, trafficking in women and children, restrictions on free speech, assembly, religion, and severe government corruption. This is hardly a new phenomenon; in fact, it pretty much occurs every year. This year, however, the defensive response of China and other governments criticized has particular resonance. "No country should exclude itself from the international human rights development process or view itself as the incarnation of human rights that can reign over other countries and give orders to the others" said Premier Wen Jiabao's cabinet. Other countries responses were in accord. Particular mention was given to the Empire's tendency towards torture (Abu Ghraib), indisciminate killing of civilians during military operations, and of course, the famous legal "black hole," Guantanamo. The dribbling away of the US's international standing in human rights is the natural effect of the rulers here who thought that the ends justified the means. It seems that the Empire's actions, once again, have come back to haunt it.

The "Bond King" and the US Economy

If Warren Buffett is perhaps the premier stockpicker in the known world, Bill Gross of PIMCO is surely the number one poohbah in bonds. It doesn't hurt to have a scorching record either. Since this man, like Buffett, has managed to beat the odds over long periods of time, his insights are well worth listening to, and Bill Gross has had enough of the current government and its financial mendacity. Taking on the Economic Report of the President, Gross excoriates the calculated Pollyanna statements regarding the international competitiveness of US students in math and science (US students rank very low by high school), health care spending (high and going ever higher), unfunded future liabilities (think Social Security and Medicare), the current account deficit (importing more than we export; becoming a debtor nation), and the astounding government and personal deficits (the savings rate has dropped to zero). None of this is new or has been insufficiently explored by others (in fact, here's more on this). Gross's conclusion, however, is that dollar devaluation is inevitable and investments might better be deployed overseas. Quite a jolting conclusion from one who has made his fortune in domestic markets.

Melting Ice in Antarctica

Not that this is particularly news anymore to readers of this blog (it seems like we cover this ground about every two or three weeks, whenever new findings appear...) but here's the latest on climate change caused by humans: new study in Nature today finds that ice caps in Antarctica are melting faster than previously known. As you might guess, melting ice leads to higher entropy in the form of higher sea levels, and, we find from the study, disappearance of rivers and lakes in Africa. Chaos believes that the willy-nilly dumping of millions of years of sunlight deposits in the atmosphere by humans is the climatological equivalent of pouring gasoline on a fire (albeit in slower motion).

Fascism in the Empire

To some people, these historical characteristics of fascism may be old news, but on the offchance that some are unaware (and that’s what we’re all about here at the Edge, news for the unaware…) here they are again:


1.) Powerful and Continuing Nationalism: Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.
2.) Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights: Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.
3.) Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause: The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial, ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.
4.) Supremacy of the Military: Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.
5.) Rampant Sexism: The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy.
6.) Controlled Mass Media: Sometimes the media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.
7.) Obsession with National Security: Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses
8.) Religion and Government are Intertwined: Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions.
9.) Corporate Power is Protected: The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.
10.) Labor Power is Suppressed: Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed.
11.) Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts: Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts.
12.) Obsession with Crime and Punishment: Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations
13.) Rampant Cronyism and Corruption: Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.
14. Fraudulent Elections: Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

To read more on this subject, see this piece with underlying contemporary examples on all points. Kinda makes one think, doesn’t it?

Peak Oil Today : Increasing Awareness, More Lies

Catching up on the slowly growing awareness of Peak Oil, we find the bleeding edge news program The Daily Show featuring guest Peter Tertzakian, author of A Thousand Barrels a Second (which Chaos has not read, nor heard of prior to the airing). Peak Oil on The Daily Show! OMFG! (Kindly excuse the vulgarity...) Only for five minutes or so, and some of that sacrificed to Stewart's jocularity, but still, an important milestone in media awareness.

Meanwhile, on another front, the "Official Energy Statistics From the US Government," the Energy Information Administration (known as the EIA), has released it's latest report (suggest reading the "Overview"pdf file). What would be the odds, do you think, that this report has realistic projections of oil and gas production and prices? Congratulations if you said "not very good," because in fact this report is filled with delusional figures and projections. For example, US lower 48 oil production is projected to magically rise between now and 2016, defying the gradual and continual decline that has gone on since 1970. Oil prices are projected to increase to $54.08/barrel in 2025 and $56.97/barrel in 2030 (for reference, yesterday's oil price was $57.25/barrel). A rosier picture of our energy future can hardly be found, and one seemingly calculated to drive the country completely off the cliff when reality begins to set in.

Avian Flu Marches Forward

Here's the newest and most important news on avian flu to date: migration to Nigeria. Unlike in the previous regions, Africa is ideally suited for an epidemic: large population of fowl, primitive conditions, uneducated natives who resist killing off "valuable" livestock, poor health conditions, very little veterinary support. If this virus is going to jump from bird to human, it will almost certainly happen here, where it can exploit the conditions. Nigeria, apparently, lies in the migratory path from central Asia--how unfortunate. Just a little more entropy in the world to start the day...

Somnolence in the Republic

Chaos has long considered the citizens of the Empire to be rather, shall we say, sleepy regarding some of the most pressing issues of the day. Apparently, though, waking unconsciousness is quite common, but actually falling asleep is less so. In today's paper of record we find that 42 million prescriptions for sleeping pills were written last year. Could it be that the stress and strain of having to "run in place," economically speaking, contributes to the sleeplessness, or is it just that Big Pharma spends so much money on convincing the sheep that there is in fact, a pill which covers every ailment? Chaos observes that a drugged citizenry, while it may be a happy citizenry, is not a particularly well-informed one.

Best Take on Imperial Speech

From poster Twilight at The Oil Drum, commenting on the Emperor’s speech on energy and its subsequent retraction by Imperial officials:

     “The things that are said by these people mean nothing.  Their commitments mean nothing.  There is no truth, only spin.  Facts and propaganda are indistinguishable to them.  Their strength is that people listen to what they say and attempt to ascribe meaning to it where none exists, and expect them to behave according to traditional conventions - but that means nothing to them.  Merely by hearing them you are at a disadvantage.
     But we as a society are so used to the constant barrage of lies called advertising, that we don't expect anything more - we're not alarmed by it at all.  When you combine this with the lack of education and curiosity of the public, you get situations like this - where the POTUS can stand before the nation and say something preposterous, and then the next day his staff can retract it, and no one will care.
Do not listen, watch the actions instead.”
In this instance, Chaos has nothing to add…

Peak Oil Around the World

"Exporting oil is an act of treason"-- Heitor Manoel Pereira, president of AEPET in Brazil, January 06, 2006.
Uh-oh. Does that sound anything like “you need us more than we need you” that we heard from Iran last week?

Back to the topic at hand, first we stop over at one of the most respected news organizations on the planet (if you thought it was Faux News, you have come to the wrong place, sorry), the BBC. Blazing across the front of their website is…wait for it…peak oil! A darned fine little synopsis; one could do worse to start an education on cheap energy with this.

Next we have a ray of hope from Sweden. The cantankerous and unconventional residents of this “social democracy” have decided to reduce their dependency on oil by 2020 to…almost nothing. Figure on one of the Scandanavian countries to show the most awareness of the greatest challenge to mankind ever. These are the kind of ambitions and conversations that citizens of responsible nations need to be having to survive in this very interesting of times.

By the way, Chaos has a theory of how peak oil will play out, and here it is: the most prepared, least oil-dependent nations, regions within nations, and communities will be the most successful; conversely, the most oil-addicted, most in denial, least prepared nations, regions and communities will suffer the most when the long decline begins. Guess which country is most vulnerable? If you said the United States of America, you really have come to the right place and have been paying attention. If you said “what?” you need to do some reading (Chaos realizes it’s not a popular or modern practice, but nevertheless…).

Finally, and to bring it back home, here's a blazingly funny editorial on just how bad it is over at "The General," #1 maker of Imperial Nation's SUVs. Sad to say, the Great American General is now a shadow of its former self; market capitalization is less than Harley-Davidson's, and it is sinking fast. A true example of entropy, along with good old 'merican stupidity and resistance to change.

Just One More From Professor Bartlett

"Democracy cannot survive overpopulation..."

Pursuing the Truth Further

Or, why the Empire has become a dictatorship:

Congress is a cesspool of legalized bribery and influence peddling. The big players with money prevail time after time. The cast of characters may change, but the same game is still played over and over. Bush and his minions have done more to expand the power of the US presidency than any executive since Nixon, to the point that the executive can successfully flout the laws of the nation without any penalty whatsoever. (Reserving the right to torture or spy on citizens without warrant, hold them without charges or trial, take your pick). Surely the right to disregard whatever laws the leader deems necessary is the essence of dictatorship. Unbelievably, none of this is secret; it can be read on the front pages of the national newspapers without protest or comment. The somnolent public has long ago ceased to listen or care, content to indulge in mindless shopping, celebrity-watching, and binge eating. It might be enough to observe that the public has traded civil rights for security, except that this would imply some sort of conscious decision, of which it is obviously not capable of rousing itself to make.

Why Citizens of the Empire Don't "Get It"

It rained here Sunday. Not a lot, just a little bit, and certainly not enough to make up for the lack in this semi-arid region. But plenty enough for the denizons of the World Capital of Ignorance to crash their vehicles, forgetting in their zeal to "get somewhere" that the driving conditions had changed a bit. Read all about it here in the local rag. Chaos' question is thus: how can one reasonably expect people to understand mildly complex issues discussed on this blog(take, for example, the tragic state of healthcare in this country, or social security, or peak oil, or whatever) when they don't even realize that slowing down when it rains might actually be a good driving practice?

Dmitry Orlov: Surviving the Soviet Collapse

This Russian author, an observer during the collapse of the Soviet Union, has written a series of three essays describing the differences between the two major superpowers and in particular, how a collapse might unfold here in the Empire. In comparing the two, he writes: "the Soviet Union and the United States are each either the winner or the first runner-up in the following categories: the space race, the arms race, the jails race, the hated evil empire race, the squandering of natural resources race, and the bankruptcy race." Part One is here.

Reading Orlov is a distinctly refreshing experience, largely because of his unhindered view of the US. He begins Part Two with an apt description of American racism, astutely noting that "glazed over with a layer of political correctness, at least in polite society, [racism] comes out again when observing whom most such Anglo-Saxon people actually choose to marry, or date." If part of your chosen task is to "take the red pill" and begin to strip off the layers of fantasy and ideological muffling which surrounds the citizens of the Empire, Orlov will help. Part Two is here.

Part Three concludes with several suggestions for surviving a collapse, some of which may be counterintuitive and surprising. A particular concern is how utterly dependent citizens are for the barest necessities: "suppose you live in a big city, in an apartment or a condo. You depend on municipal services for survival. A week without electricity, or heat, or water, or gas, or garbage removal spells extreme discomfort. Any two of these is a calamity. Any three is a disaster. Food comes from the supermarket, with help from the cash machine or credit card slot at the checkout station. Clean clothes come from the laundromat, which requires electricity, water, and natural gas. Once all the businesses have shut down and your apartment is cold, dark, and smells like garbage (because it isn't being collected) and like excrement (because the toilet doesn't flush), perhaps it is time to go camping and explore the great outdoors." Orlov sniffs around a most interesting idea: that societies and regions that are the most cheap energy dependent today will be the hardest hit in a collapse. Ask yourself which countries those might be. Try Orlov; he's a blast of fresh air...

Spook Capital of the Nation

Well, well, well, what have we here (literally)? The NSA, recently infamous for its illegal spying activities on innocent Americans, is now doubling its presence in the World Capital of Ignorance. Spending $100 million of your tax dollars to spy on people like you sounds like the "good clean industry" that city leaders are looking for. As one noted, "it's a quiet giant." Yeah, quiet. Typically, the agency would neither confirm nor deny that it was expanding, how many people it employs, or anything at all. Chaos guesses that from now on, the atmosphere will be "spooky" year-round, not just at Halloween. Scary stuff.

Population Growth in the Empire

Sam Roberts, author of commentaries on the US Census, takes on the issue of the 300 millionth resident of the Empire in today's paper of record. The consequences of overpopulation are faintly sketched, but can be seen towards the end of the the article: "By the time the 300 millionth individual gets to adulthood, many of the cities today we considerto be small and nice to live in won't be so nice." Of note is the projection that in 40 years, the Empire's population will reach 400 million. Not so nice indeed, and not a surprise to those who have listened to Dr. Bartlett.

A Math Lesson From Dr. Bartlett

This 57 minute video is perhaps the most important lesson (on any subject) anyone might take. "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function, " says Dr. Albert Bartlett, professor of physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder, and then proceeds to prove it in this highly entertaining lecture on the effects of exponential growth on finite resources, and the ignorant, carelessly inaccurate way that politicians and the media refer to supplies of energy. The formulas are simple and easy to grasp, even for a being as averse to orderly systems like mathematics as Chaos. It is the application of the principles to our growth-oriented economy, however, that is so devastating. Bartlett demonstrates that our primary problem is overpopulation and the resulting depletion of resources:

"Can you think of any problem, on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way, aided, assisted, or advanced by having larger populations at the local level, the state level, the national level, or globally?"

Food for thought.

An Antidote to Media Avian Flu Hype

Few things in modern life are as dismaying as media's tendency to hype the weather, natural disasters, pets in peril, kidnapped blonde females, shark attacks and the like. The recent outbreak of avian flu in Turkey (yeah yeah yeah, bird flu in Turkey, how ironic) provides fertile ground for those who depend on advertising and ratings. Here's the remedy: the World Health Organization avian flu site, with lots of "truthiness," as Mr. Colbert would say. Inform yourself, enjoy, but don't panic. Yet.

Quotes of the Day

"Build a man a fire and you warm him for a day; set a man on fire and you warm him for his life."

"Quitters never win and winners never quit, but those who never win and never quit are idiots."

"Every day above ground is a good day."

Trading Liberty for Security

An update to Friday's post: this editorial summarizes the position of the Emperor again for the comatose public. Predictably, not a whimper of protest has been heard. Chaos must conclude that the apathetic people of the Empire desire to lose their civil liberties, or are so indifferent and obtuse as not to care. A more diffuse explanation would be that this is to be expected in a complex society growing ever more complex. As Tainter notes, such societies cannot overcome complexity indefinitely and become at risk for collapse. Perhaps this very phenomenon is happening at the present moment. Students of entropy take note.

The Emperor Ascends: Torture Update

Chaos dislikes the current fascination with the phrase "tipping point" but it may actually be applicable to certain current events. As reported in the Boston Globe, when Bush signed the McCain-sponsored anti-torture bill last week, he "reserved the right to bypass the law under his powers as commander-in-chief." The excellent article points out that this really means that the Emperor is now truly an Emperor, subject only to his own whims as to whether and when to obey the laws of the United States. For some reason, Chaos believes this is a rather significant event in the devolution of the nation's civil rights, and others apparently agree. See this Tomdispatch post (much more eloquent and erudite than Chaos) for a more elaborate spin on this issue. Chaos sadly notes the passing of the Bill of Rights, a fine document which served well for many years. The Imperial Presidency will be hazardous to all.

Deceptive Religion Exposed: "Intelligent" Design Skewered

It's not a latebreaking news story that a judge in Pennsylvania struck down mention of so-called "intelligent design" in science classes as unconstitutional. Chaos recommends reading the entire 139 page opinion, however, to really understand the depths to which fundamentalist Christians will sink to advance their cause. Page after page in the opinion documents how, for example, intelligent design is just creationism, relabled in response to a Supreme Court decision (Edwards) striking down mentioning it in schools:

“By comparing the pre and post Edwards drafts of Pandas, three astonishing points emerge: (1) the definition for creation science in early drafts is identical to the definition of ID; (2) cognates of the word creation (creationism and creationist), which appeared approximately 150 times were deliberately and systematically replaced with the phrase ID; and (3) the changes
occurred shortly after the Supreme Court held that creation science is religious and cannot be taught in public school science classes in Edwards.”

In addition, the Court’s opinion notes that intelligent design rests merely on the syllogism, first promoted by Aquinas in the 13th century, that “wherever complex design exists, there must have been a designer; nature is complex; therefore nature must have had an intelligent designer.” Intelligent design is nothing more than this, along with trying to cast doubt on the validity of Darwinism.(“ID is at bottom premised upon a false dichotomy, namely, that to the extent evolutionary theory is discredited, ID is confirmed.”) Intelligent design is not science:

“Not a single expert witness over the course of the six week trial identified one major scientific association, society or organization that endorsed ID as science. What is more, defense experts concede that ID is not a theory as that term is defined by the NAS and admit that ID is at best “fringe science” which has achieved no acceptance in the scientific community.”

Of further note is the utter lack of credibility of the creationists. Time and again, they disclaim memory of events, testify falsely under oath, and are deemed “inconsistent,” and “non-credible” by Judge Jones. In addition, their actions were deceptive:

“The testimony at trial stunningly revealed that Buckingham and Bonsell tried to hide the source of the donations because it showed, at the very least, the extraordinary measures taken to ensure that students received a creationist alternative to Darwin’s theory of evolution.”
“We are accordingly presented with further compelling evidence that Bonsell and Buckingham sought to conceal the blatantly religious purpose behind the ID Policy.”

As has been noted many times previously, this opinion comes from a conservative Republican judge. His final comments are most damning: “It is ironic that several of these individuals, who so staunchly and proudly touted their religious convictions in public, would time and again lie to cover their tracks and disguise the real purpose behind the ID Policy.”

Chaos has noted this before, but it bears repeating: what kind of religion is this whose adherents believe that the ends justify the means? Why do christians seem so prone to deception? Fundamentalism explains part of it: its disciples are fanatics by any definition, but even the Catholic church is willing to spread lies to promote its peculiar and archaic form of reproduction regulation. Don’t believe? Read this for one of the best examples ever, but it is far from the only one. This church promotes and spreads lies and death, is the only conclusion one can draw.

Let's Start the New Year Out Right; Clear Thinking About Iraq

Happy New Year!

Despite Chaos' contention that Hurricane Katrina was the event of the year, so to speak, the situation in Iraq occupied much of the Evil Empire's attention in 2005. From across the pond comes this analysis that effectively summarizes the state of the debacle for Britain and the US:

"Reliable reporting from Iraq is now so dangerous that the level of insecurity can only be gleaned from circumstantial evidence. Baghdad outside the American green zone is all "red zone', off limits to any but the most reckless foreigner. The death rate and the number of explosions are rising. While some rural areas are relatively safe there is no such thing as national security. Iraq's borders are porous. Crime is uncontrolled. The concept of an "occupying power" is near meaningless.

The Americans cannot even protect the lawyers at Saddam's trial, two of which have been killed. Iraqis are meeting violent death in greater numbers probably than at any time since the Shi'ite massacres of 1991. Professionals are being driven into exile, children are kidnapped, women are forced indoors or shot for being improperly dressed. Those Britons who preen themselves for "bringing democracy to Iraq" would not dare visit the place. They have brought three elections, but elections without security do not equal democracy."

Don't you just love the way educated Brits write? At any rate, seems that 2006 will be the year that a victory is declared and a general withdrawal starts. Not nearly soon enough, in Chaos' opinion.

Warning to Government: Peak Oil is Coming!

This report, prepared for the US Department of Energy by Science Applications International Corporation and authored by Robert Hirsch, should be required reading for all citizens of the Imperial Republic. (Oh wait, most of them can't or won't read and nobody wants to hear about this). For those with limited time or attention spans, try the executive summary instead, although the tone of alarm is significantly muted. Suffice to say: peak oil is coming (it may already be here right now), preparations for it need to start ASAP (or perhaps 10-20 years before), and the longer the wait before doing anything, the worse it will be. "Dealing with world oil production peaking will be extremely complex, involve literally trillions of dollars and require many years of intense effort."

In past posts, Chaos has noted how the facts of peak oil have recently been slipping into news media and government hearings. It is now time to wonder why the Imperial government continues to remain silent, since waiting to educate its citizens and initiate action is clearly deterimental to dealing with the problem. Or, is the government's response to this issue more resource wars in the Middle East and other places around the world? Clearly, competition for energy among nations will be the next wave of international politics, but this only amounts to a short term rearranging of the chairs on the Titanic. Sadly, Chaos believes that the government's lack of response speaks volumes, and requires citizens to make their own preparations for the inevitable end of oil. For further exploration: Sustainable Living Forum ( registration required to view articles), Peak Oil Forums (try Planning For the Future).

The Two Faces of Immigration: Xenophobes and Heroes

Here it is, the two extremes of illegal Mexican immigration, the issue that, as Chaos has noted in the past, has the potential to split the Republican party in two. On the xenophobic end, we have the profile of CO Rep. Tom Tancredo, a "lonely figure who rails against immigration and battles his own president and party." At least, up to now, when anger over immigration has propelled this reactionary to prominence, with such incendiary ideas as fences at the border, denying citizenship to residents born here, and felonizing the mere presence of illegal immigrants in the US. Not all of these will come to pass, immigration being one of the few issues that George Bush thinks he knows something about (he technically was the governor of Texas for a brief time), and opposes, but the "catching up" with Tancredo reflects a deep xenophobia among many citizens of the Empire. On the other hand comes this illustration of how deeply important to Mexico and its economy are these illegal immigrants, such that a parade is held in some Mexican towns for the returning workers, who are hailed as heroes for their financial contributions to local coffers. "People waved and shouted as a line of 51 vehicles, driven by returning immigrants as part of a parade and car concert, made its way through the streets of this town (Rio Verde) of 88,000." Mexican immigrants are apparently responsible for about $1 billion per year repatriating back to Mexico, explaining why the government passively encourages the practice. Chaos observes further that Mexican immigrants have spread to the four corners of the US, which also explains the spread of xenophobia. Hang on, this can only get worse (yes, more entropy).

The Stupids Take Over the Holidays

Of all the ridiculous things to come to pass this year, nothing lowered the level of discourse more than Faux News and it's 580+ segments on the "War on Christmas." The manufacture and flogging of a completely vacuous, bogus issue designed specifically to appeal to willfully ignorant fundies has to be the so-called "fair and balanced" news channel's finest moment in recent memory, and an excellent example of how far the Empire is deteriorating. For a bracing antidote to the silliness, see this outstanding piece by Christopher Hitchens on how utterly stupid these people really are. Money quote:

"The Fox News campaign against Wal-Mart and other outlets—whose observance of the official feast-day is otherwise fanatical and punctilious to a degree, but a degree that falls short of unswerving orthodoxy—is one of the most sinister as well as one of the most laughable campaigns on record. If these dolts knew anything about the real Protestant tradition, they would know that it was exactly this paganism and corruption that led Oliver Cromwell—my own favorite Protestant fundamentalist—to ban the celebration of Christmas altogether.

No believer in the First Amendment could go that far. But there are millions of well-appointed buildings all across the United States, most of them tax-exempt and some of them receiving state subventions, where anyone can go at any time and celebrate miraculous births and pregnant virgins all day and all night if they so desire. These places are known as "churches," and they can also force passersby to look at the displays and billboards they erect and to give ear to the bells that they ring. In addition, they can count on numberless radio and TV stations to beam their stuff all through the ether. If this is not sufficient, then god damn them. God damn them everyone."

Amen, and happy solstice.

Chaos

Watch This Movie! Or We'll Shoot This Dog!

Ok, seriously, if you ever wondered why ugly, dysfunctional suburban sprawl came to be that way, and what will happen to it in a future without endless, cheap energy (yes, it's called Peak Oil), you owe it to yourself to watch this 78 minute video. Featuring such luminaries as James Howard Kunstler, Matthew Simmons, and Richard Heinberg, this documentary also serves as a useful introduction to Peak Oil. Hearing Kunstler describe suburbia as "the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world" is priceless.

Your Government is Watching (or at least listening)

The story of the week, despite what Bush claims, isn't the Iraqi election. It's this one on how the NSA has been eavesdropping on American phone conversations since 2002. The Emperor signed a secret order allowing the unprecendented actions, but the NSA had already started its nefarious activities even before the order took effect (just couldn't wait). In the country Chaos grew up in, the NSA wasn't allowed to spy on Americans at all, just foreigners. Chaos wonders what other secret orders were signed and what agencies are now spying on citizens of the Empire...

Peak Oil Hits Congress, Guess What Happens?

Chaos never thought to see the day when the concept of Peak Oil would finally bubble out of obscurity and come to the attention of the evil, corrupt Imperial House of Representatives, but it did, about a week ago. Read Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's testimony (among others) to get the full flavor.

By the way, if you said "the House embarked on a crash course to assure the U.S. has sufficient alternatives to oil in the future," sorry. Nothing will happen, is Chaos' prediction.

Blah, Blah, Blah

As the United States embarasses itself at the UN conference on global warming at Montreal (it took most of the two week long conference to even agree to engage in nonbinding talks), Rome--and the rest of the globe--continue burning. Specifically, the Amazon river basin, the world's largest rain forest, is undergoing an unprecedented and devastating drought. The worst in recorded history (in this case, the past 100 years), the drought is thought to be caused by the same global warming that caused a little bit of weather this summer in the New Orleans area. A being as devoted to entropy as Chaos can only wonder at the coming possibilities.

Decline of the American Empire, Part XIV: Video Game Outsourcing

Yes, it's true: gamers are now outsourcing the boring beginnings of video games to the Chinese. And why not? The Imperial Empire has outsourced pretty nearly everything else to the rest of the world.

Here's another gamer item that illustrates the unreality of life in the Empire today: adult gamers are devastated by Sony's decision to revamp their favorite online game into a juvenile first person shooter. Says one gamer," ...for many people it's much more than a game. It is a part of their lives where they have invested huge amounts of time building a community."

We're Running Out of Food, Worldwide

Think not? Read this.
We've used up about 40% 0f the planet for growing crops or raising livestock, leaving little left for more expansion. The United States became a net importer of food for the first time recently. Try, if you can, to square this with ever increasing populations of hungry or greedy people.

The Trouble With Boys

An article this week in the Washington Post reiterated some familiar concepts and statistics concerning a growing problem: boys (and men) are falling behind, first at school and then (naturally) in work and life. Some grim statistics: men are no more than 43% of the population of university students and boys and young men are 80% of high school dropouts. Some possible reasons for the decline include an emphasis on girls' success, a style of learning in school that's ill-suited to the way boys actually learn (it turns out that boys' and girls' brains are actually different when viewed by a brain scan), and a lack of active father roles. Much of these problems and some solutions are discussed in Real Boys. Having parented a boy for lo these many years, Chaos highly recommends this book for fellow travelers. A stoutly written work, the author nonetheless has deep empathy for boys and many useful suggestions for raising and teaching successful happy boys.

New Scary Climate Change Stuff

The two latest developments in the gradual (but increasing quickly) disintegration of the planet's climate, courtesy of insatiable human consumption of fossil fuels and exponential growth: core ice samples taken from Antarctica's ice cap indicate that current levels of carbon dioxide and methane are at their highest levels in the last 650,000 years. Researchers could not drill any deeper because of technological limits, so the issue may not be settled, but preliminary findings are disturbing at least. In another finding, it seems that sea levels have risen twice as much during the current century as in previous times.

Second finding: The Atlantic Conveyer, also known as the Gulf Stream, responsible for bringing warm water to Northern Europe, has been discovered to be slowing. This is in line with previous computer modeling predicting that the current may collapse from global warming, paradoxically causing the climate in Europe to cool substantially. This recent data clearly needs more study and corroboration, but as a confirmation of previously offered theories, it's an important piece in the puzzle. Of course, humans need a crisis to wake up from holiday shopping and pay attention, so the steady drip of bad news will have no effect on nonnegotiable lifestyles. Chaos wishes readers a happy weekend, unencumbered by entropy.