Monday, August 18, 2008
A Peak OIl Overview: Dissonance
Friday, August 08, 2008
The Merger of Entertainment and Politics
The Political Discourse: Stupidity Works!
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Why Blaming Our "Leaders" Doesn't Work
"Americans would be using far less gas — and consumers and the automobile industry would be much better off — if Congress had summoned the wisdom and political courage 20, 10, even five years ago to impose tough fuel economy standards on the nation’s transportation fleet." (emphasis Chaos')
Let's think for a moment as to why "wisdom and...courage" would be required of our elected officials. Could it be, perhaps, that taking these actions would result in said officials being turned out of office? (Chaos hopes you know the answer to this question...) Is it possible, do you think, that these same leaders are well aware of this particular dynamic? In light of the extreme differences in fuel economy seen between the US and the rest of the Western nations, Chaos would suggest the following framework for analysis whenever you hear some version of this silly editorial:
1. Elected officials are still elected in the Empire, election manipulation and fraud notwithstanding. An elected officials' first priority is retaining the position; all else is secondary, and the "public interest" likely comes last, or not at all.
2. No leader will remain in the post for very long if viewpoints taken (regarding energy) are at odds with that of the character of the electing public. (Chaos is well aware of such anomalies as Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, but such is the exception which proves the rule)
3. If the character of the public is insane, stupid, delusional, greedy, short-sighted, etc., the elected leaders will reflect this, just as surely as if it were sane, intelligent, clear-thinking, prudent, etc. Such populations exist in the world; just look around (hint: Norway). One potent symbol of this principle is the nature of the political "conversation," i.e., is it intelligent, relevant, sober, or is it silly, lacking in substance, verging on ridiculous, and panders to voters' most base instincts? (Again, Chaos hopes you've been paying attention...)
In light of the above, it is simply unrealistic to excoriate so-called "leaders" for failing to do what the public clearly does not believe in. For the same reasons, changing the current crop of officials will not produce any better results. This also explains the incoherence of the political discussion, whereby gas prices must be reduced, and at the same time, the nation's thirst for energy needs to be curbed (if you think these two propositions aren't inconsistent, please read some more....). Best hopes for less delusional thinking...
The Road Not Taken: How Consumerism Destroys Leisure Time
Friday, August 01, 2008
A Fond Farewell To The Dinosaurs...
The Power of Human Energy...A Funny Parody
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Bike Lanes To Nowhere
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Viewpoints On The Brain
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Current State of The American Dream
American Stupidity...
"First, is sheer ignorance: Ignorance of critical facts about important events in the news, and ignorance of how our government functions and who's in charge. Second, is negligence: The disinclination to seek reliable sources of information about important news events. Third, is wooden-headedness, as the historian Barbara Tuchman defined it: The inclination to believe what we want to believe regardless of the facts. Fourth, is shortsightedness: The support of public policies that are mutually contradictory, or contrary to the country's long-term interests. Fifth, and finally, is a broad category I call bone-headedness, for want of a better name: The susceptibility to meaningless phrases, stereotypes, irrational biases, and simplistic diagnoses and solutions that play on our hopes and fears."
Highly interesting, in Chaos' view. Also, kindly note that this author has written a book on the same subject, which of course Chaos intends to peruse at the earliest opportunity. Interested readers can find more at the author's blog here.
For further viewing: Idiocracy
Thursday, July 03, 2008
American Culture, Revisited
"Some people are giving a lot of thought to how to build a movement around global warming. This is a tough challenge but given American know-how, can-do, ingenuity, cojones, knee-jerk patriotic hubris, suspicion of foreigners, a staggeringly high 50% literacy rate, reliance on conspiracy theories, faith in one god or another, and unflagging belief in progress in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, I am sure it can be done. This is a helluva country. Here's why.
1. A commitment to representative democracy conditioned only on the necessity of belonging to one of two parties, Republican or Democrat. Republicans have the upper hand given that their 24th pair of chromosomes codes for Greed. Democrats' 24th chromosome codes for Deceit. It's Win-Win for either of them.
2. An abiding love for gambling, monster theme parks, shopping in giant malls, riding in huge vans, and family values that use churches and TV sets to bring everyone together. These shared values give a remarkable cohesion to American society even in the face of ecological collapse. No one wants to be a nattering nabob of negativity as the world crumbles around us. Stiff upper lips are enough for the British but not for Americans, who need overstuffed credit cards to reassure themselves that they are the salvation of the world and if you don't like it you can go back where you came from.
3. A fervent belief in the right to cheap gas. After decades of paying under a dollar per gallon for gasoline -- 35 cents in the 1960s -- Americans are now getting really pissed off at the chutzpah of royal monarchs, royal leftist pains-in-the-ass and Royal Dutch Shell executives who think they have as much a right to make money as Americans do. What gives foreigners these privileges? Don't they know we can send in the troops anytime we want for any reason?
4. An indissoluble adhesion to religion in one form or another. It is undeniable that the existence of dissent, protest and freedom of expression causes discomfort to many Americans, sending them into the arms and shelter of various religious cults and institutions, who will, on their behalf, fight against these basic freedoms and rights so as to make them feel better. Generally speaking, they are cheaper than psychoanalysts depending on how much of your meagre salary you turn over to these delightful snake oil salesmen. (Nothing wrong with snake oil; lots of it, under different names, is sold in "Health food" stores to the conspiracy theorists on the left and right who think all doctors and medicine are poisoning them).
5. There is nothing like conspiracy theories, except maybe some stand-up comedians, to keep people amused and connected. We can thank the internet for making this political networking possible, since it ties up people who might be making serious mischief elsewhere.
6. An unprecedented web of multiculturalism, ranging from extreme Political Correctness which bans words like "beggars" and "midget," to Rambo Limbaughs, to posturing paleoliberals like Eric Alterman and The Nation, to New Age gurus like Deepak Chopra, to street-theater rabblerousers like Al Sharpton, not to mention the mammalian diversity in the halls of Congress, where the promise of equal opportunity is fulfilled in the election of liars, louts and lechers every two years. This country can be rightly proud of its tolerance for dissent, where blacks think all whites are racists and whites think all blacks are Arabs.
7. Only in America could the conundrum of disdain for government and politicians be so perfectly illustrated by the election-year digestion of the whole cloth of candidates' promises.
8. An adherence to the time-tested practice of misogyny, whether in the corporate glass ceiling, skewed pay scales, domestic violence, or the female slavery in Mormon religious brothels that condemns generations of girls and women to illiteracy, inequality and isolation. Let no one accuse Americans of forsaking the prejudices and practices of their pioneer ancestors.
9. A obeisant compliant media industry that, unlike its brethren in congress, is willing and eager to feed the demands, biases and fears of its readers and listeners. It cannot be accused of elitism or pandering to the select few; on the contrary, it faithfully brings, every hour of the day and night, the promise of prosperity and material success to tens of millions of people even as the country's political and economic leaders strive to deprive them of these things. Truly, it is a balm for troubled Americans who are tired of being bombarded with the bad news about global warming, epidemics, food shortages and the prospect of parking their RV in their backyard indefinitely.
Given these conditions, who should be leading our country? The only people qualified to lead our country fall into at least one of these categories: atheists/secularists; women; libertarians; homeless. Atheists and secularists are independent rational thinkers and resistant to cult thinking and behavior. Women are obviously the more compassionate, stable and social justice-oriented gender. Libertarians, though they have some peculiar ideas about guns, taxes and the environment, are highly tolerant of dissent and defenders of civil liberties. And the homeless need to replace the corporate lobbyists and executives and be allowed to pursue their own self interest: getting a roof over their heads and a hot meal. (Note: I have left out gays and lesbians because basically they are really no different from the rest of society).
Here is my proposed list for the top positions in Washington:
President: Dennis Kucinich. A little guy with a big brain and heart.
Vice president: Weird Al Yankovich. Because we need another VP named Al.
Secretary of State: Christopher Hitchens. A gutsy smartass atheist with no ax to grind, who is hated by the left and the religious community...testimony to his value.
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare: Ayaan Hirsi Ali. A reward for her moral witness and courage in facing down islamist extremism and PC.
Secretary of Commerce: Rev. Billy of the Church of Stop Shopping.
Secretary for the Environment: James Gustave Speth. For being a non-leftist fingering capitalism as the root of the world's problems. (If he declines, I nominate Dave Foreman).
Secretary of Labor: Ralph Nader."
* * * * *
Lorna Salzman started her forty-year career as environmental activist saving wetlands on eastern Long Island and got her big boost and inspiration when Dave Brower hired her as regional representative of Friends of the Earth in New York. After serving over ten years with FOE, mostly fighting nuclear power and fending off the Army Corps of Engineers, she had brief stints at National Audubon Society's American Birds magazine, at Food & Water fighting food irradiation, and in the 1990s served three years as natural resource specialist at the NY City Dept.of Environmental Protection. In between she founded the NY Green Party, ran as a green for congress in 2002, and sought the party's presidential nomination in 2004.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
The Poisonous Food Problem (Kids Edition)
Thursday, June 19, 2008
The Life and Times of the Banana
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
The Monoculture of Food, Explained
Monday, June 16, 2008
Why The Capitol Remains Ignorant
"But [Mexico's] proven oil reserves are shrinking, and it lacks refining capacity, particularly for low-sulfur diesel being phased in under the North American Free Trade Agreement. (This mysterious phrase enables the author to dance around the fact that Mexico oil production has peaked and is in rapid, irreversible decline.)
"So even while the nation still exports crude oil, it imports about 40 percent of its fuel"
Further:
"Pemex has been having difficulties. According to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration, Mexico's net oil exports dropped from 1.7 million barrels a day in 2006 to 1.46 million per day in 2007. A 28-year graph of proven reserves shows a sharp downslide." (Yeah, a 13% yearly decline in productions of one's largest oil field tends to produce a few "difficulties." And again with the proven reserves language. Did the author pick that up from some expert or what? Keep tapdancing...)
Concluding with some nods to the impact of higher oil prices on the poorer citizens of Mexico, the article ends on a slightly confused note, i.e., was the point the cheap Mexican gas, so attractive to American motorists close to the border, the declining production (although this word appears nowhere in the piece), the impact (and potential riots) on the poor, or something else?
Well. Chaos has many thoughts for such an article, most strikingly that it somehow left out some rather important facts about Mexico, one of the top 5 sources of oil for the US. How an article concerning itself with this subject could somehow fail to mention Cantarell, one of the largest oil fields in the world and source of a majority of Mexico's oil production. The field has peaked and entered a rapid decline such that Mexico is on track to move from an oil exporter to an oil importer in the next five years. New discoveries may slow the decline but will not affect the end result. Be assured, readers, that these facts are not unknown, or obscure in any way; a few seconds of "googling" will call them up. In Chaos' humble opinion, when the one of the top ten oil producers peaks and begins a catastrophic decline, it should in fact be a front page headline for pretty much the entire nation. The fact that it is not, and further, that this muffling by the so-called media "watchdogs" continues, serves to reinforce Chaos' view that, for whatever reason, the facts will not be faced in the US until they are so blatantly obvious that they can no longer be ignored, even by the most somnolent of the public. Want more proof? Check out this ridiculously irresponsible opinion (by a "business columnist") as to why $200 oil just won't happen. Really. It just won't. Look for the Faux News "kill the messenger" fallacies, the Las Vegas-style gambling that apparently constitutes the current corporate culture, the ad hominem attacks, and (get ready) even a reference to the viability of shale oil. Yikes! This columnist's solution for the public? "At a minimum, we'll buy a more fuel-efficient car or even go the extra step and car pool!" (Chaos cannot help but be stunned at this person's energy illiteracy, but then again, it's quite obvious that most folk in the Empire are equally delusional).
Monday, June 09, 2008
Morons, Marching Firmly Back To The Future...
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Yellow Journalism At It's Finest
"The War on Drugs may be fading from memory north of the Rio Grande, but south of the river, bloody battles are threatening to overwhelm Mexico’s democratically elected government." (Seems like we've heard this story somewhere before...oh yeah, I remember now: Colombia....and I guess it's "fading from memory" because we have an actual war going on or something?)
"The timid assistance package proposed by the Bush administration and pared down by Congress suggests that Washington doesn’t grasp either the scale of the danger or its own responsibilities." (And what responsibilities would those be? Wait, it's coming...)
"The United States has a clear interest and a clear obligation to help. This country is the main market for the methamphetamine cooked in Mexican labs and the cocaine moving through Mexico from the Andes. It is also the source of the traffickers’ weapons. And no fence will stop the gun battles from moving across the border." (Hmmm...'help' with the Drug War....let's think about that one. Seems like the US has been having a 'drug war' for quite awhile, and what have we to show for it? More people imprisoned for consuming natural substances which are less harmful than alcohol or tobacco, but not much else, besides the enormous amounts of money being spent.)
"The Bush administration is right to acknowledge the shared threat and the common responsibility. But the three-year, $1.4 billion aid package it proposed doesn’t do the job. It is too small, notably so when compared with the billions the cartels earn in the United States. And far too much of the aid is military hardware when Mexico has other more urgent needs."(Well, how much would it take, you know, to actually win? Do we have a ballpark figure? No? Maybe because that would be money down a rathole, to use a colloquialism...)
"Above all, Mexico needs help rooting out corruption and creating a well-equipped, well-trained and respected civilian police force. The Mexican police need help improving their skills in forensic investigations, prison security and witness protection. And Mexico needs a transparent, fair and competent judiciary to prosecute traffickers as well as officials and members of the police who have been bought by the traffickers or are guilty of human rights abuses."(Mexico may indeed have problems with corruption, which may or may not be related to the drug trade, but offering to 'help' with those is kinda, oh, hypocritical, when you think about the corruption that seems to be endemic in the Empire these days. The monies spawned by the prohibition on drugs know no boundaries in inducing law enforcement corruption; witness the number of public officials in South Texas indicted for accepting bribes from drug traffickers. But let's let the patronizing attitude slide, and consider again what metrics this amazing editorial would like to use to consider this 'aid' a success.)
"Washington’s role does not end there. Mexico has no hope of defeating the traffickers unless this country is also willing to do more to fight the drug war at home — starting with a clear commitment to stop the weapons smugglers and to do more to take on the narcotics networks on the American side of the border." (Actually, nobody should hope, after all this time, money and effort, that defeating drug traffickers has even the remotest possibility, short of legalization. The violence which so scares the Times is the direct result of the illegality, and hence the markup, of the substances. Let us say it one more time: the 'War On Drugs' is a stupid concept. It cannot be 'won'. Resistance to this concept, as they say in a memorable Star Trek film, is futile. It does, however, divert one's attention from more serious matters, which lurk on the edge of the Matrix, and for that, perhaps the piece has actually served its purpose. Sleep now, children.)Air Travel Update
Water, Water, Everywhere?
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
If I Ran The Circus...
1. Stop building roads. Period. Existing roads will be maintained, but no new roads of any kind will ever be built again, save bicycle trails.
2. Existing roads will have at least one full lane devoted to bicycles, scooters, and small motorcycles. Said lane will be physically separated from the motor vehicle lane.
3. Any personal motor vehicle with mileage rating of less than 20 mpg highway will be taxed at a 35% rate. This tax is not deductible from federal income tax.
4. 55 mph speed limit for highways is mandatory. 35 mph speed limit for all other roadways.
5. .50/gallon gas tax imposed immediately, rises by .25/gallon every 6 months until it reaches the average of OECD nations. Proceeds of said tax will be devoted exclusively to building rail/light rail.
If the above solutions seem improbable to you, perhaps it's time to ask why that is...which, of course, leads us back to the issue of national character. What is it, in fact, of the US character which prevents even the discussion of rational response to inevitable depletion of finite resources?
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Peak Oil Roundup, Redux
Next off, in an interesting development, our friend James Howard Kunstler, fresh off completion of his newest (an entertaining work of fiction, entitled World Made By Hand), is featured in an editorial in, of all place, the Washington Post. The point here is not the content of the piece, since Kunstler repeats what most of us have read weekly on his blog, but the fact that it appears in a national newspaper in its unvarnished bluntness. Is the US public finally ready to hear some unpleasant facts? Doubtful, but interesting nonetheless to watch the tone of the discourse change so quickly.
In more doomer news, truckers are going out of business at an alarming rate, and car loans are not much available anymore, adding to the auto industry's woes (which are already considerable). This in addition to the continual downward spiral of the airline industry, which last week decided to add yet another level of annoying surcharges and inconvenience to the passenger experience, clearly aimed at driving more and more people to forsake air travel completely. Chaos should probably have listed more examples of this trend, but it seems too obvious and common to belabor.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
A Bit of Dietary Advice
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Just One More Example...
Friday, May 09, 2008
Devil Weed Update: Geography Changes Perspective
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
A Vision of What Might Have Been
The Inevitable Devolution of Air Travel Continues...
Collapse Update: Dmitry Orlov
Reflections On The American "Character"
Indeed. Chaos has not much to add, save that it is and will continue to be, quite interesting at the twilight of the Empire...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Peak Oil News
Thursday, April 10, 2008
What's Underneath: Noam Chomsky On The Air We Breathe
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Economics: Synchronicity
Monday, March 31, 2008
Obscenities
Read This Book! Really!
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
To The People Of Costa Rica, Regarding CAFTA
Reject this agreement. There is no mystery as to its consequences, no matter how rosy the promises being made to you. The purpose of this agreement is to enrich the few at the expense of the many ("few" refers in this context to multinational corporations). Even better, for the price of a plane ticket or the few clicks of a mouse, you can see the future of your country under this odious treaty in the country of Mexico today. Ever wanted to be forced to leave your homeland and illegally cross the US border to find work? This agreement will ensure it. Care to give up your family farm and move to the city, there to reside in a vast shantytown, and eke out a living performing degrading labor in a sweatshop factory, or beg on the streets for subsistence? Vote yes on CAFTA. We have a saying in Estados Unidos de Tejas, where Chaos currently and temporarily resides: "you got to dance with what them that brung ya." Costa Rica, what brought you to this dance was your strong history of real democracy, your rejection of militaristic jingoism, your commitment to education, and your ecological awareness. Cede not your sovereignty in these things in exchange for false promises of economic benefit. Perhaps other parties to this agreement think they will gain economic development, but they are not you. Look around the world today and try to find examples of the shining promises of benefits to all that proponents of this scabrous document would have you swallow without question. Chaos begs you to read the scandalous history of free trade imposed on the Second and Third World, and recall the murderous behavior of the US multinationals (United Fruit, ITT, and many others) in Latin America. Proponents of this fraud are counting on you to forget the lessons of the past. Do not permit this. It is no accident that the US has made this a priority. Think well upon these things and do whatever it takes to resist.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Quote of the Day
Only after the last river has been poisoned
Only after the last fish has been caught,
Only then will we realise that money cannot be eaten.
- Cree Indian saying
Next: an open letter to Costa Rica...
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Regarding The Latest Gasoline Price Increase...
Oh, and here's a nice piece by Michael Klare on why gas prices won't be coming down again. Ever. In case you didn't want to just take Chaos' word for it...
Friday, March 14, 2008
New Oil Drum Video On Olduvai Gorge
Friday, February 29, 2008
American Values #5: Prison Nation
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
The State of the Oceans: Bad, And Getting Worse
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Why Global Climate Change Comes Quickly
Olduvai Theory Update: Doomer Edition
Thursday, February 14, 2008
More Vital Than Gasoline
Health Care Update
On a more abstract note comes this piece on a seemingly simple remedy for many hospital errors, which in turn lead to more sickness and death. Are you ready? It's....a checklist! That's right; some ICU specialist figured out a few years ago that this actually does work. The interesting part comes at the end, when we find out that no, the US is quite resistant to changing this complex system simply because it works (and it flies in the face of the ego-centric doctors' sense of infallibility...) and that some other countries are implementing it with significant results. A lengthy article, but worth the read, for symbolic reasons as well.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
An Engaging Video: The Story of Stuff
Saturday, February 09, 2008
The Human Ecological "Footprint"
Relocation: The Corruption Perceptions Index
Oh, and for more comparison info, check out this Wikipedia ranking of economic inequality among nations.
Predatory Nation: Credit Card Issuers Face The Music
"Ronald J. Mann, a law professor at Columbia University and a credit expert, describes credit industry practices as intended to enslave borrowers in a 'sweat box.'"
In an interesting twist, consumers who seek to settle their debts have been further preyed upon by unscrupulous "debt relief" services, who sometimes advise them to suspend payments to creditors and save the funds for future lump sum payments (the disastrousness of this course of action should be apparent to the financially literate...). So, in essence, we have predators springing up from predators.
Just a brief example, and of course Chaos will continue to point these out.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
The Role of Time
Saturday, January 26, 2008
The Empire Declines
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Consequences Of Believing In Fairy Tales
"Many Americans remain ignorant about much of science, the board said. Many are unable to answer correctly when asked whether Earth moves around the Sun (it does).
They are not noticeably more ignorant than people in other developed countries except on two subjects, evolution and the Big Bang. Although these ideas are organizing principles underlying modern biology and physics, many Americans do not accept them.
“These differences probably indicate that many Americans hold religious beliefs that cause them to be skeptical of established scientific ideas,” the report said, “even when they have some basic familiarity with those ideas.”
Well, Chaos has nothing particular to add to this...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
News Release You Won't Read In The News
A Signal Ignored
Coming as it does on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, the breaking of the $100 dollar barrier for oil prices will likely be treated by many as an almost imperceptible change in our world. By Friday it will likely be lost in the discussion of the political events unfolding.
The $100 a barrel price is a sign that times will never be the same again. According to TheOilDrum.com, the world is entering a new era, where the supply of energy will come to dominate the political landscape in a way that is currently not recognized by any of the leading candidates.
Over the past two years, citizens have been repeatedly assured that there is no problem with future oil supply. Because of a perceived need to present both sides of the argument, the public has heard false promises of lower future prices, and been beguiled by the possibility of a price collapse in the face of excess supply.
Recently, various qualifiers have started to appear in oil discussions. These qualifiers include the need for increased investment in exploration and improved production technologies. The media fails to mention that the needed investment will be at an increasingly diminished rate of return, to the point where it becomes economically unattractive to search harder and harder for very small quantities of oil and gas.
Both oil and natural gas resources around the world are found in underground reservoirs of a finite size. Many of these oil reservoirs have now been producing for over fifty years. In that time, the vast quantities of oil that were in place have been reduced. As the quantity of oil remaining in place falls, the rate at which oil can be recovered also falls. This makes it necessary to drill additional wells into the reservoir in order to maintain the level of output.
According to TheOilDrum.com, at some point enough oil will have been extracted that no matter how many more wells are drilled, overall production from the field will go into irreversible decline. And as field after field reaches this condition, the overall production of oil for the region will begin to fall. This happened to the United States in 1970 when oil production reached a peak. US production has since declined from a maximum of over 9.6 million barrels a day (mbd), to the current level of around 5 mbd. More recently, the oil fields of the North Sea, the Alaskan fields on the North Slope, and the huge Cantarell field in Mexico have entered irreversible decline.
As these fields deplete, smaller fields have been brought into production, but these small fields do not last as long. Drilling activity must be increased in order to find even smaller fields. These, in turn, deplete more and more rapidly, exacerbating the need for new wells.
According to TheOilDrum.com, the world is now reaching the point where all of the oil fields of the world are in aggregate coming to peak production. As peak world production draws near, the rate of increase in oil production can be expected to stall because of constrained resources. This can happen even with rising demand. Once production falls short of what is needed, oil prices can be expected to increase, so that demand is brought in line with available supply.
At this point, countries that still have a surplus of oil to export are seeing their economies boom. This growth brings an increase in their own demand for oil, which reduces the amount that can be made available for export. This higher oil use by exporting countries reduces the available supply to importing countries, further accelerating the rise in price. The countries least able to afford the increase are likely to be affected most.
The consequences of energy supply shortages can be surprisingly great. Energy shortages can lead to public unrest, such as occurred recently in Myanmar. In times of inclement weather, energy shortages can lead to a loss of export supply, if the supplier finds that domestic demand is consuming all that is available. Problems for importing nations then suddenly become worse. One such example is the Iranian gas import situation this past week, and the consequent cut in exports to Turkey.
According to TheOilDrum.com, the world has now entered a period of fragile balance between demand and available supply. Unfortunately the situation cannot be expected to improve. The increasingly limited ability of nations such as Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase oil production is already becoming evident, leading to a reduced potential for raising world production.
It now appears unlikely that the world will ever see a daily oil production rate of 90 mbd, even when natural gas liquids and condensate are included. Thus, future projections that speak glibly of numbers above this level are foisting a canard on the world's population that all will come to regret.
In the coming months, the $100 per barrel marker will be lost in the debate over other issues. According to TheOilDrum.com, limited oil supply is not an issue that will go away. Rather, it is an issue that will steadily increase in importance. Eventually, the cries for action, and for culprits to blame will become over-riding -- at a time well within the first term of the presidential candidates.
These candidates now pay little attention to energy policy, but that must and will change. Hopefully, greater concern for energy policy will occur before events force a change, but so far the grim markers along the way have largely been ignored.
Now, contrast that with this clueless MSM article which appeared in the local rag a couple of days ago:$100 oil likely to hit pocketbooks soon
Web Posted: 01/06/2008 08:08 PM CST
Brett ClantonHouston Chronicle
U.S. consumers are likely to feel the sting of $100 oil soon, and in perhaps more ways than they realize.
Crude reached the symbolic milestone, albeit briefly, a couple of times last week, before closing Friday at $97.91.
More directly ominous for consumers, AAA reported Friday that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationwide was $3.07, up from $2.32 a year ago. In Houston, the average price at the end of the week was $2.92, up from $2.18 last January. (San Antonio: $2.94, compared to $2.17)
Higher gasoline prices likely will pinch consumers the most as more crude costs are passed through to drivers, analysts said.
But if oil prices stay up, Americans also may see higher prices for a host of other petroleum-derived products, from lightbulbs and paint to golf balls and deodorant.
"There's oil in everything around us," said Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Bros. in New York. So it's impossible not to be touched in some way by $100 oil.
"Whether it's the direct impact of heating oil or diesel or gasoline, the indirect impact is sort of ubiquitous in the world we live in," he said. "And it affects everyone's pocketbook because it affects the amount we can spend on the things we need and want."
Oil prices continued their ascent in the first days of this year after climbing nearly 60 percent in 2007 amid rising global energy demands, geopolitical tensions and betting by speculators in commodity markets.
Yet the effects of the sharp increase in oil prices have been slow to hit consumers.
Profits dipped for most major oil companies in late 2007 because crude oil costs rose faster than their refining operations could pass those costs on, leaving the companies stuck with the bill. Other industries also have been absorbing higher energy costs to avoid raising prices for their products, analysts said.
"But somewhere down the line, if (oil) prices are sustained at where they are today, you'll probably start to see it creep into consumers' pocketbooks," said Brian Youngberg, energy analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
That creep is well under way at the gas pump.
It was on the minds of drivers late last week at a Shell station in southwest Houston, where regular unleaded sold for $3.14 a gallon.
"It takes a toll," Chris Emuchay, 20, a security guard, said as he gassed up his aging Cadillac Sedan DeVille. "It makes you worry about just going to work and getting home."
David Dixon, 37, said higher energy costs have spurred him to hunt for bargains at gas stations, to install more energy-efficient appliances at his home in Pearland and to cut unnecessary spending.
"Anything we don't need to spend money on, we're trying not to," said Dixon, a service manager at a local sign manufacturer, who was filling up his 1992 Mitsubishi Montero SUV.
Dixon may not be alone. Recently, the Federal Reserve has warned that higher energy costs could force many consumers to pull back spending in other areas and lead to a broader slowdown of the U.S. economy.
That worry has deepened in recent weeks amid signs of slower growth in several parts of the economy, prompting speculation by analysts that a recession is near. Those signs include softer growth in retail sales, continued trouble in the housing market, declining industrial production and slower job growth.
Many eyes also remain on consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Growth in consumer spending, at 4 percent in the first quarter of 2007, fell to about 1.4 percent in the second quarter amid higher gas prices, but then recovered to 3 percent in the third quarter. Economists expect consumer spending numbers for the fourth quarter, which have not yet been released, to show slower growth.
"You would not expect high gas prices to depress consumer spending growth forever," said Nigel Gault, an analyst with economic forecaster Global Insight. "What we would expect to see is if gasoline prices go up, that squeezes spendable income. People adjust to that."
For some, that may mean driving less. During the last four weeks, as pump prices have climbed, U.S. gasoline demand rose only 0.1 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Analysts consider year-over-year demand growth of less than 1.5 percent to be soft.
A similar pullback occurred last spring and early summer when gasoline prices hit record levels, said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis at MasterCard Advisors, which collects data on gasoline demand based on MasterCard receipts and other payment types.
"In 2007, it seemed to be that at the $3.00 to $3.10 per gallon level, people began to pump less gas," he said.
While $3 gas has appeared during the peak summer driving season in recent years, prices always fell again in the fall on softer demand for motor fuels. But in November and December of 2007, average prices surpassed the $3 mark for the first time ever in each of those months, AAA said.
If oil stays high, gasoline prices could continue their march upward, hitting new records, analysts said.
The record national average of $3.23 per gallon was set May 24, according to AAA.
Tom Kloza, oil analyst with the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J., believes gas prices could keep rising this year, but probably won't reach $4 a gallon.
"I think a range of $3.25-$3.75 is a reasonable guess of where gasoline prices may peak in 2008," he said.
About 3.5 percent of U.S. household budgets now goes to gasoline and fuel costs, up from 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
From early 1986 to 2004, families never dedicated more than an average of 3 percent of their total spending to gasoline. In the fall of 2006, gasoline expenditures jumped to 3.8 percent. The record was 5.2 percent in 1981, when oil prices, adjusted for inflation, were about where they are today.
With gasoline price spikes in recent years, Americans have responded by cutting vacations, saving less and borrowing more on credit cards, said Christian E. Weller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a Washington, D.C., think tank, and professor at the University of Massachusetts Boston.
"The main point still holds that families cannot adequately plan for large jumps in gasoline prices," Weller said. "And that they will have to cut back elsewhere."
Very few facts here, mostly just spin for the masses. Let's not inquire too closely into the actual situation, folks, the entire economy depends mostly on "confidence" (now there's a loaded term).
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Two Views On Population: What We Cannot Say
Sunday, December 30, 2007
What's Wrong With Airport Security?
"Six years after the terrorist attacks of 2001, airport security remains a theater of the absurd. The changes put in place following the September 11th catastrophe have been drastic, and largely of two kinds: those practical and effective, and those irrational, wasteful and pointless.
The first variety have taken place almost entirely behind the scenes. Explosives scanning for checked luggage, for instance, was long overdue and is perhaps the most welcome addition. Unfortunately, at concourse checkpoints all across America, the madness of passenger screening continues in plain view. It began with pat-downs and the senseless confiscation of pointy objects. Then came the mandatory shoe removal, followed in the summer of 2006 by the prohibition of liquids and gels. We can only imagine what is next.
To understand what makes these measures so absurd, we first need to revisit the morning of September 11th, and grasp exactly what it was the 19 hijackers so easily took advantage of. Conventional wisdom says the terrorists exploited a weakness in airport security by smuggling aboard box-cutters. What they actually exploited was a weakness in our mindset — a set of presumptions based on the decades-long track record of hijackings.
In years past, a takeover meant hostage negotiations and standoffs; crews were trained in the concept of “passive resistance.” All of that changed forever the instant American Airlines Flight 11 collided with the north tower. What weapons the 19 men possessed mattered little; the success of their plan relied fundamentally on the element of surprise. And in this respect, their scheme was all but guaranteed not to fail.
For several reasons — particularly the awareness of passengers and crew — just the opposite is true today. Any hijacker would face a planeload of angry and frightened people ready to fight back. Say what you want of terrorists, they cannot afford to waste time and resources on schemes with a high probability of failure. And thus the September 11th template is all but useless to potential hijackers.
No matter that a deadly sharp can be fashioned from virtually anything found on a plane, be it a broken wine bottle or a snapped-off length of plastic, we are content wasting billions of taxpayer dollars and untold hours of labor in a delusional attempt to thwart an attack that has already happened, asked to queue for absurd lengths of time, subject to embarrassing pat-downs and loss of our belongings.
The folly is much the same with respect to the liquids and gels restrictions, introduced two summers ago following the breakup of a London-based cabal that was planning to blow up jetliners using liquid explosives. Allegations surrounding the conspiracy were revealed to substantially embellished. In an August, 2006 article in the New York Times, British officials admitted that public statements made following the arrests were overcooked, inaccurate and “unfortunate.” The plot’s leaders were still in the process of recruiting and radicalizing would-be bombers. They lacked passports, airline tickets and, most critical of all, they had been unsuccessful in actually producing liquid explosives. Investigators later described the widely parroted report that up to ten U.S airliners had been targeted as “speculative” and “exaggerated.”
Among first to express serious skepticism about the bombers’ readiness was Thomas C. Greene, whose essay in The Register explored the extreme difficulty of mixing and deploying the types of binary explosives purportedly to be used. Green conferred with Professor Jimmie C. Oxley, an explosives specialist who has closely studied the type of deadly cocktail coveted by the London plotters.
“The notion that deadly explosives can be cooked up in an airplane lavatory is pure fiction,” Greene told me during an interview. “A handy gimmick for action movies and shows like ‘24.’ The reality proves disappointing: it’s rather awkward to do chemistry in an airplane toilet. Nevertheless, our official protectors and deciders respond to such notions instinctively, because they’re familiar to us: we’ve all seen scenarios on television and in the cinema. This, incredibly, is why you can no longer carry a bottle of water onto a plane.”
The threat of liquid explosives does exist, but it cannot be readily brewed from the kinds of liquids we have devoted most of our resources to keeping away from planes. Certain benign liquids, when combined under highly specific conditions, are indeed dangerous. However, creating those conditions poses enormous challenges for a saboteur.
“I would not hesitate to allow that liquid explosives can pose a danger,” Greene added, recalling Ramzi Yousef’s 1994 detonation of a small nitroglycerine bomb aboard Philippine Airlines Flight 434. The explosion was a test run for the so-called “Project Bojinka,” an Al Qaeda scheme to simultaneously destroy a dozen widebody airliners over the Pacific Ocean. “But the idea that confiscating someone’s toothpaste is going to keep us safe is too ridiculous to entertain.”
Yet that’s exactly what we’ve been doing. The three-ounce container rule is silly enough — after all, what’s to stop somebody from carrying several small bottles each full of the same substance — but consider for a moment the hypocrisy of T.S.A.’s confiscation policy. At every concourse checkpoint you’ll see a bin or barrel brimming with contraband containers taken from passengers for having exceeded the volume limit. Now, the assumption has to be that the materials in those containers are potentially hazardous. If not, why were they seized in the first place? But if so, why are they dumped unceremoniously into the trash? They are not quarantined or handed over to the bomb squad; they are simply thrown away. The agency seems to be saying that it knows these things are harmless. But it’s going to steal them anyway, and either you accept it or you don’t fly.
But of all the contradictions and self-defeating measures T.S.A. has come up with, possibly none is more blatantly ludicrous than the policy decreeing that pilots and flight attendants undergo the same x-ray and metal detector screening as passengers. What makes it ludicrous is that tens of thousands of other airport workers, from baggage loaders and fuelers to cabin cleaners and maintenance personnel, are subject only to occasional random screenings when they come to work.
These are individuals with full access to aircraft, inside and out. Some are airline employees, though a high percentage are contract staff belonging to outside companies. The fact that crew members, many of whom are former military fliers, and all of whom endured rigorous background checks prior to being hired, are required to take out their laptops and surrender their hobby knives, while a caterer or cabin cleaner sidesteps the entire process and walks onto a plane unimpeded, nullifies almost everything our T.S.A. minders have said and done since September 11th, 2001. If there is a more ringing let-me-get-this-straight scenario anywhere in the realm of airport security, I’d like to hear it.
I’m not suggesting that the rules be tightened for non-crew members so much as relaxed for all accredited workers. Which perhaps urges us to reconsider the entire purpose of airport security:
The truth is, regardless of how many pointy tools and shampoo bottles we confiscate, there shall remain an unlimited number of ways to smuggle dangerous items onto a plane. The precise shape, form and substance of those items is irrelevant. We are not fighting materials, we are fighting the imagination and cleverness of the would-be saboteur.
Thus, what most people fail to grasp is that the nuts and bolts of keeping terrorists away from planes is not really the job of airport security at all. Rather, it’s the job of government agencies and law enforcement. It’s not very glamorous, but the grunt work of hunting down terrorists takes place far off stage, relying on the diligent work of cops, spies and intelligence officers. Air crimes need to be stopped at the planning stages. By the time a terrorist gets to the airport, chances are it’s too late.
In the end, I’m not sure which is more troubling, the inanity of the existing regulations, or the average American’s acceptance of them and willingness to be humiliated. These wasteful and tedious protocols have solidified into what appears to be indefinite policy, with little or no opposition. There ought to be a tide of protest rising up against this mania. Where is it? At its loudest, the voice of the traveling public is one of grumbled resignation. The op-ed pages are silent, the pundits have nothing meaningful to say.
The airlines, for their part, are in something of a bind. The willingness of our carriers to allow flying to become an increasingly unpleasant experience suggests a business sense of masochistic capitulation. On the other hand, imagine the outrage among security zealots should airlines be caught lobbying for what is perceived to be a dangerous abrogation of security and responsibility — even if it’s not. Carriers caught plenty of flack, almost all of it unfair, in the aftermath of September 11th. Understandably, they no longer want that liability.
As for Americans themselves, I suppose that it’s less than realistic to expect street protests or airport sit-ins from citizen fliers, and maybe we shouldn’t expect too much from a press and media that have had no trouble letting countless other injustices slip to the wayside. And rather than rethink our policies, the best we’ve come up with is a way to skirt them — for a fee, naturally — via schemes like Registered Traveler. Americans can now pay to have their personal information put on file just to avoid the hassle of airport security. As cynical as George Orwell ever was, I doubt he imagined the idea of citizens offering up money for their own subjugation.
How we got to this point is an interesting study in reactionary politics, fear-mongering and a disconcerting willingness of the American public to accept almost anything in the name of “security.” Conned and frightened, our nation demands not actual security, but security spectacle. And although a reasonable percentage of passengers, along with most security experts, would concur such theater serves no useful purpose, there has been surprisingly little outrage. In that regard, maybe we’ve gotten exactly the system we deserve."
This piece comes from an airline pilot, who obviously has an outstanding grasp of the issues. Think that airport security will change anytime soon? Doubtful...
Another Reason To Be A Doomer
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Peak Oil For The Holidays!
Friday, December 14, 2007
More Juicy Quotes On The Planet's Meterological Miscreant...
“My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali.”--Al Gore, Nobel Prize recipient.
“The best we hoped for was that the U.S. would not hobble the rest of the world from moving forward,” said Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit American organization. “Our delegation here from the States has not been able to meet that low level of expectation.”
To remind readers, once again, the people have spoken (probably more than once) and those in the US have gotten exactly the government they wanted and deserve. Have a nice weekend.



