The Fall Of Nauru: A Warning...

This fascinating article concerning the environmental destruction and consequent economic collapse of the tiny island nation offers an instructive lesson on several levels. Briefly, the people of this Pacific island enjoyed a resource-based bounty for a time: phosphate derived from bird guano. The birds were attracted by the rich coral reefs, but changing migratory patterns caused a long anticipated decline in the resource base (it's also quite likely that the resource was mined much faster than replenishment). Islanders had invested in a trust fund intended to provide financial security for leaner times, but corruption and mismanagement depleted the fund prematurely. In addition to leaving the population destitute, the phosphate mining produced vast environmental damage. Sadly, there apparently is still some phosphate to be mined from Nauru's soil, and this time, promises are made that a new trust fund will be properly managed. In the meantime, the island population has shrunk dramatically as those able to leave have departed permanently.

What's equally interesting about this piece is not just the bald facts of resource depletion and devastating environmental damage, but the author's astounding assertion that the fault lies in "failure to invest in economic growth." Here's some key evidence of this flawed logic:

"It's a cautionary lesson in the perils of failing to reinvest in the economy. There is no country in the world, not Nauru and not the United States, that can possibly sustain itself indefinitely on the proceeds of yesterday's economic successes.

There is no substitute for economic growth. Making some really bad investments was clearly one of the Nauruans' big mistakes. But over the long run, neither a big, well-managed trust fund nor a small, badly managed one will survive in the face of a shrinking economy."

Well. Some really amazing editorializing here, mostly just ignoring the undeniable fact that humans cannot exist without natural resources. This is typical of most of the material one reads in the MSM these days...completely clueless and without any context whatsoever. The author describes the overshoot and collapse of a civilization in miniature, without for a moment realizing what is being depicted in this unfortunate scenario or the implications for the rest of the planet. For a more accurate picture, try substituting the words "exploitation of natural resources" for "economic growth." Articles like the one posted should be serving as screaming warnings, but alas, no one pays attention.

The Lifeboat...

Chaos bets you've never considered the implications of having a boat, as a way of responding to the peaking of global oil supplies, but someone has, and here it is, in an interesting article sponsored by our friend Dmitry Orlov (Chaos regrets that time has not permitted the perusing of his latest, Reinventing Collapse). A good one to expand your mind, and your alternatives.

Scott Burns Says, "Time to Leave"

Oh, and forget about Medicare; may as well just opt-out rather than pay the increasingly inflated premiums that will occur in the future. Seriously, though, Scott has on occasion floated the idea of retiring in some cheaper country, for those spendthrifts who have participated in the greatest wealth explosion known to humankind (with, of course, its attendant waste...) and somehow failed to lay in any retirement savings. Gosh, wonder how that could happen? But happen it apparently has, to a number of residents of the Empire, and a few more who will be facing retirement age, and of course only a fool would assume the government would take an interest in this phenomenon, beyond mere lip service. What's new in today's column, however, is the frank admission that one might go ahead and not only retire to another country, but not participate in the Medicare program at all. (Scott suggests making "other arrangements," without specifying what those might be...). Those students of collapse who have read Tainter will note that opting out of a country's programs or facilities is one of the features of a disintegrating civilization. If you'd like to read the conventional response to the healthcare problem in the Empire, today's paper of record provides this fruitless survey. Ponder well, readers who still believe in American exceptionalism. That ship has sailed, in Chaos' opinion.

US Comptroller Compares Empire to Rome

No, you just can't make this up...David Walker, US Comptroller General, likens the nation to the Roman Empire (and we all know what happened there, don't we? readers of The Bibliography will actually know why as well...). As far as Chaos knows, this is sorta, well, unprecedented in the history of the nation. Someone oughta pay attention to that, or maybe not. Chaos has seen "wakeup calls" go out with increasing regularity over the past couple of years or so, and not one of them has produced any more than that vile Internet acronym, BAU (business as usual), so it might be unrealistic to assume anything more than that.

Collapse Revisited: Tainter's Collapse (the abridged version)

Chaos somehow doubts that most casual readers will attempt to get through what is considered the definitive work on collapse, Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies, since it is somewhat academic and scholarly, and let's face it, who reads these days anyhow (besides Chaos)? At any rate here is a much shorter link for those who wish to know why complexity leads eventually to collapse, or at least it has in the past...or is modern industrial civilization "special" and exempt from past historical experience, much like those who insist that civilization can keep growing (and destroying the planet as it does) forever, in defiance of the laws of nature, since humans are "special."

The Inflation Monster Arises

No, Chaos is not being dramatic...a reading of today's selection will induce fear and horror, if you are a resident of the most financially profligate nation on the planet. The US economy appears to be suspended in midair, held together by nothing by hope and delusions. Its people have forgotten how to save, and its government has made promises that will bankrupt it and everyone who lives here. A sober, reasonable expectation for the future will be roaring inflation and massive tax increases. Chaos envies not at all those who will be attempting to maintain employment in the US during the next twenty years or so. Scott Burns, co-author of the excellent The Coming Generational Storm, gives us an update on the state of these so-called government "promises"--Social Security and Medicare. The cost of these two programs exceeds what will be collected in taxes by 63.675 trillion dollars, more than the market value of all land, buildings, highways, plants and equipment in the US (by about 20 trillion dollars). Chaos must emphasize that these figures are not new (well, they have gotten worse of course, since nothing has been done) since commentators like Burns have been sounding the warning for years. Chaos has no further prediction beyond the obvious above, but suggests that the other factors discussed often here will enhance the negative effects. If this subject does not incline one towards relocation, Chaos wonders what would...

Some Scary Stuff

Here's a couple of items to keep you on the edge of your seat, so to speak...

The first is "A Crude Awakening: Oil Crash," which premiered the other night on the Sundance Channel, and is set for a few more showings this weekend. A fine documentary which covers all the basics of the subject; the visualizations are scary and excellent. Gather any "nonbelievers" in your circle and plop them down in front of this one, if you can.

Our second entry comes from the blog of esteemed poster Greyzone on The Oil Drum....a near future scenario laid out in enough detail and drawing upon currently known facts. Quite fine, and frightening in its possibilities.

Enjoy your day in the Matrix, readers.

The Aliens Approach...

(Click to enlarge)

Quotes of the Day

Yes yes, not every day, and not many days either. Nevertheless:

"Here is a chimera, a new and very odd species come shambling into our universe, a mix of Stone Age emotion, medieval self image, and godlike technology. The combination makes the species unresponsive to the forces that count most for its own long term survival."--Edward O. Wilson, The Creation

"To the hard of hearing you shout, and for the almost-blind you draw large and startling figures."--Flannery O'Connor

Oh, and here's another (original) one:

"You're never too old to make a fool of yourself"--Chaos

Dmitry Orlov, Again: Prepare For Collapse

This perceptive writer has been featured several times here at the Edge. His mordant wit and international perspective are quite valuable to beings stuck inside the Imperial bubble, and his writings and speeches on collapse are extraordinarily on point. Here he presents, in slides and commentary, a comparison between the former Soviet Union and the US, vis a vis collapse. Easy and fun reading.

A Message From The Ghost of Xmas Future

Something about how humans think makes dramatizations more telling than dry recitations of facts. To put it another way, you can learn a lot from fiction, especially well-researched stuff. Case in point is John Michael Greer's latest couple of posts, starting here, depicting Jane Average and her family as they celebrate Xmas in 2050. Read it and the following one for a punch in the gut, and don't neglect the comments at the bottom, where the author explains a bit about the context and why certain elements appear. Even a brief visit with the Averages is enough to make one thankful that a catabolic collapse has not yet occurred.