Saturday, January 26, 2008
The Empire Declines
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Consequences Of Believing In Fairy Tales
"Many Americans remain ignorant about much of science, the board said. Many are unable to answer correctly when asked whether Earth moves around the Sun (it does).
They are not noticeably more ignorant than people in other developed countries except on two subjects, evolution and the Big Bang. Although these ideas are organizing principles underlying modern biology and physics, many Americans do not accept them.
“These differences probably indicate that many Americans hold religious beliefs that cause them to be skeptical of established scientific ideas,” the report said, “even when they have some basic familiarity with those ideas.”
Well, Chaos has nothing particular to add to this...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
News Release You Won't Read In The News
A Signal Ignored
Coming as it does on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, the breaking of the $100 dollar barrier for oil prices will likely be treated by many as an almost imperceptible change in our world. By Friday it will likely be lost in the discussion of the political events unfolding.
The $100 a barrel price is a sign that times will never be the same again. According to TheOilDrum.com, the world is entering a new era, where the supply of energy will come to dominate the political landscape in a way that is currently not recognized by any of the leading candidates.
Over the past two years, citizens have been repeatedly assured that there is no problem with future oil supply. Because of a perceived need to present both sides of the argument, the public has heard false promises of lower future prices, and been beguiled by the possibility of a price collapse in the face of excess supply.
Recently, various qualifiers have started to appear in oil discussions. These qualifiers include the need for increased investment in exploration and improved production technologies. The media fails to mention that the needed investment will be at an increasingly diminished rate of return, to the point where it becomes economically unattractive to search harder and harder for very small quantities of oil and gas.
Both oil and natural gas resources around the world are found in underground reservoirs of a finite size. Many of these oil reservoirs have now been producing for over fifty years. In that time, the vast quantities of oil that were in place have been reduced. As the quantity of oil remaining in place falls, the rate at which oil can be recovered also falls. This makes it necessary to drill additional wells into the reservoir in order to maintain the level of output.
According to TheOilDrum.com, at some point enough oil will have been extracted that no matter how many more wells are drilled, overall production from the field will go into irreversible decline. And as field after field reaches this condition, the overall production of oil for the region will begin to fall. This happened to the United States in 1970 when oil production reached a peak. US production has since declined from a maximum of over 9.6 million barrels a day (mbd), to the current level of around 5 mbd. More recently, the oil fields of the North Sea, the Alaskan fields on the North Slope, and the huge Cantarell field in Mexico have entered irreversible decline.
As these fields deplete, smaller fields have been brought into production, but these small fields do not last as long. Drilling activity must be increased in order to find even smaller fields. These, in turn, deplete more and more rapidly, exacerbating the need for new wells.
According to TheOilDrum.com, the world is now reaching the point where all of the oil fields of the world are in aggregate coming to peak production. As peak world production draws near, the rate of increase in oil production can be expected to stall because of constrained resources. This can happen even with rising demand. Once production falls short of what is needed, oil prices can be expected to increase, so that demand is brought in line with available supply.
At this point, countries that still have a surplus of oil to export are seeing their economies boom. This growth brings an increase in their own demand for oil, which reduces the amount that can be made available for export. This higher oil use by exporting countries reduces the available supply to importing countries, further accelerating the rise in price. The countries least able to afford the increase are likely to be affected most.
The consequences of energy supply shortages can be surprisingly great. Energy shortages can lead to public unrest, such as occurred recently in Myanmar. In times of inclement weather, energy shortages can lead to a loss of export supply, if the supplier finds that domestic demand is consuming all that is available. Problems for importing nations then suddenly become worse. One such example is the Iranian gas import situation this past week, and the consequent cut in exports to Turkey.
According to TheOilDrum.com, the world has now entered a period of fragile balance between demand and available supply. Unfortunately the situation cannot be expected to improve. The increasingly limited ability of nations such as Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase oil production is already becoming evident, leading to a reduced potential for raising world production.
It now appears unlikely that the world will ever see a daily oil production rate of 90 mbd, even when natural gas liquids and condensate are included. Thus, future projections that speak glibly of numbers above this level are foisting a canard on the world's population that all will come to regret.
In the coming months, the $100 per barrel marker will be lost in the debate over other issues. According to TheOilDrum.com, limited oil supply is not an issue that will go away. Rather, it is an issue that will steadily increase in importance. Eventually, the cries for action, and for culprits to blame will become over-riding -- at a time well within the first term of the presidential candidates.
These candidates now pay little attention to energy policy, but that must and will change. Hopefully, greater concern for energy policy will occur before events force a change, but so far the grim markers along the way have largely been ignored.
Now, contrast that with this clueless MSM article which appeared in the local rag a couple of days ago:$100 oil likely to hit pocketbooks soon
Web Posted: 01/06/2008 08:08 PM CST
Brett ClantonHouston Chronicle
U.S. consumers are likely to feel the sting of $100 oil soon, and in perhaps more ways than they realize.
Crude reached the symbolic milestone, albeit briefly, a couple of times last week, before closing Friday at $97.91.
More directly ominous for consumers, AAA reported Friday that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationwide was $3.07, up from $2.32 a year ago. In Houston, the average price at the end of the week was $2.92, up from $2.18 last January. (San Antonio: $2.94, compared to $2.17)
Higher gasoline prices likely will pinch consumers the most as more crude costs are passed through to drivers, analysts said.
But if oil prices stay up, Americans also may see higher prices for a host of other petroleum-derived products, from lightbulbs and paint to golf balls and deodorant.
"There's oil in everything around us," said Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Bros. in New York. So it's impossible not to be touched in some way by $100 oil.
"Whether it's the direct impact of heating oil or diesel or gasoline, the indirect impact is sort of ubiquitous in the world we live in," he said. "And it affects everyone's pocketbook because it affects the amount we can spend on the things we need and want."
Oil prices continued their ascent in the first days of this year after climbing nearly 60 percent in 2007 amid rising global energy demands, geopolitical tensions and betting by speculators in commodity markets.
Yet the effects of the sharp increase in oil prices have been slow to hit consumers.
Profits dipped for most major oil companies in late 2007 because crude oil costs rose faster than their refining operations could pass those costs on, leaving the companies stuck with the bill. Other industries also have been absorbing higher energy costs to avoid raising prices for their products, analysts said.
"But somewhere down the line, if (oil) prices are sustained at where they are today, you'll probably start to see it creep into consumers' pocketbooks," said Brian Youngberg, energy analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
That creep is well under way at the gas pump.
It was on the minds of drivers late last week at a Shell station in southwest Houston, where regular unleaded sold for $3.14 a gallon.
"It takes a toll," Chris Emuchay, 20, a security guard, said as he gassed up his aging Cadillac Sedan DeVille. "It makes you worry about just going to work and getting home."
David Dixon, 37, said higher energy costs have spurred him to hunt for bargains at gas stations, to install more energy-efficient appliances at his home in Pearland and to cut unnecessary spending.
"Anything we don't need to spend money on, we're trying not to," said Dixon, a service manager at a local sign manufacturer, who was filling up his 1992 Mitsubishi Montero SUV.
Dixon may not be alone. Recently, the Federal Reserve has warned that higher energy costs could force many consumers to pull back spending in other areas and lead to a broader slowdown of the U.S. economy.
That worry has deepened in recent weeks amid signs of slower growth in several parts of the economy, prompting speculation by analysts that a recession is near. Those signs include softer growth in retail sales, continued trouble in the housing market, declining industrial production and slower job growth.
Many eyes also remain on consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Growth in consumer spending, at 4 percent in the first quarter of 2007, fell to about 1.4 percent in the second quarter amid higher gas prices, but then recovered to 3 percent in the third quarter. Economists expect consumer spending numbers for the fourth quarter, which have not yet been released, to show slower growth.
"You would not expect high gas prices to depress consumer spending growth forever," said Nigel Gault, an analyst with economic forecaster Global Insight. "What we would expect to see is if gasoline prices go up, that squeezes spendable income. People adjust to that."
For some, that may mean driving less. During the last four weeks, as pump prices have climbed, U.S. gasoline demand rose only 0.1 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Analysts consider year-over-year demand growth of less than 1.5 percent to be soft.
A similar pullback occurred last spring and early summer when gasoline prices hit record levels, said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis at MasterCard Advisors, which collects data on gasoline demand based on MasterCard receipts and other payment types.
"In 2007, it seemed to be that at the $3.00 to $3.10 per gallon level, people began to pump less gas," he said.
While $3 gas has appeared during the peak summer driving season in recent years, prices always fell again in the fall on softer demand for motor fuels. But in November and December of 2007, average prices surpassed the $3 mark for the first time ever in each of those months, AAA said.
If oil stays high, gasoline prices could continue their march upward, hitting new records, analysts said.
The record national average of $3.23 per gallon was set May 24, according to AAA.
Tom Kloza, oil analyst with the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J., believes gas prices could keep rising this year, but probably won't reach $4 a gallon.
"I think a range of $3.25-$3.75 is a reasonable guess of where gasoline prices may peak in 2008," he said.
About 3.5 percent of U.S. household budgets now goes to gasoline and fuel costs, up from 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
From early 1986 to 2004, families never dedicated more than an average of 3 percent of their total spending to gasoline. In the fall of 2006, gasoline expenditures jumped to 3.8 percent. The record was 5.2 percent in 1981, when oil prices, adjusted for inflation, were about where they are today.
With gasoline price spikes in recent years, Americans have responded by cutting vacations, saving less and borrowing more on credit cards, said Christian E. Weller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a Washington, D.C., think tank, and professor at the University of Massachusetts Boston.
"The main point still holds that families cannot adequately plan for large jumps in gasoline prices," Weller said. "And that they will have to cut back elsewhere."
Very few facts here, mostly just spin for the masses. Let's not inquire too closely into the actual situation, folks, the entire economy depends mostly on "confidence" (now there's a loaded term).
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Two Views On Population: What We Cannot Say
Sunday, December 30, 2007
What's Wrong With Airport Security?
"Six years after the terrorist attacks of 2001, airport security remains a theater of the absurd. The changes put in place following the September 11th catastrophe have been drastic, and largely of two kinds: those practical and effective, and those irrational, wasteful and pointless.
The first variety have taken place almost entirely behind the scenes. Explosives scanning for checked luggage, for instance, was long overdue and is perhaps the most welcome addition. Unfortunately, at concourse checkpoints all across America, the madness of passenger screening continues in plain view. It began with pat-downs and the senseless confiscation of pointy objects. Then came the mandatory shoe removal, followed in the summer of 2006 by the prohibition of liquids and gels. We can only imagine what is next.
To understand what makes these measures so absurd, we first need to revisit the morning of September 11th, and grasp exactly what it was the 19 hijackers so easily took advantage of. Conventional wisdom says the terrorists exploited a weakness in airport security by smuggling aboard box-cutters. What they actually exploited was a weakness in our mindset — a set of presumptions based on the decades-long track record of hijackings.
In years past, a takeover meant hostage negotiations and standoffs; crews were trained in the concept of “passive resistance.” All of that changed forever the instant American Airlines Flight 11 collided with the north tower. What weapons the 19 men possessed mattered little; the success of their plan relied fundamentally on the element of surprise. And in this respect, their scheme was all but guaranteed not to fail.
For several reasons — particularly the awareness of passengers and crew — just the opposite is true today. Any hijacker would face a planeload of angry and frightened people ready to fight back. Say what you want of terrorists, they cannot afford to waste time and resources on schemes with a high probability of failure. And thus the September 11th template is all but useless to potential hijackers.
No matter that a deadly sharp can be fashioned from virtually anything found on a plane, be it a broken wine bottle or a snapped-off length of plastic, we are content wasting billions of taxpayer dollars and untold hours of labor in a delusional attempt to thwart an attack that has already happened, asked to queue for absurd lengths of time, subject to embarrassing pat-downs and loss of our belongings.
The folly is much the same with respect to the liquids and gels restrictions, introduced two summers ago following the breakup of a London-based cabal that was planning to blow up jetliners using liquid explosives. Allegations surrounding the conspiracy were revealed to substantially embellished. In an August, 2006 article in the New York Times, British officials admitted that public statements made following the arrests were overcooked, inaccurate and “unfortunate.” The plot’s leaders were still in the process of recruiting and radicalizing would-be bombers. They lacked passports, airline tickets and, most critical of all, they had been unsuccessful in actually producing liquid explosives. Investigators later described the widely parroted report that up to ten U.S airliners had been targeted as “speculative” and “exaggerated.”
Among first to express serious skepticism about the bombers’ readiness was Thomas C. Greene, whose essay in The Register explored the extreme difficulty of mixing and deploying the types of binary explosives purportedly to be used. Green conferred with Professor Jimmie C. Oxley, an explosives specialist who has closely studied the type of deadly cocktail coveted by the London plotters.
“The notion that deadly explosives can be cooked up in an airplane lavatory is pure fiction,” Greene told me during an interview. “A handy gimmick for action movies and shows like ‘24.’ The reality proves disappointing: it’s rather awkward to do chemistry in an airplane toilet. Nevertheless, our official protectors and deciders respond to such notions instinctively, because they’re familiar to us: we’ve all seen scenarios on television and in the cinema. This, incredibly, is why you can no longer carry a bottle of water onto a plane.”
The threat of liquid explosives does exist, but it cannot be readily brewed from the kinds of liquids we have devoted most of our resources to keeping away from planes. Certain benign liquids, when combined under highly specific conditions, are indeed dangerous. However, creating those conditions poses enormous challenges for a saboteur.
“I would not hesitate to allow that liquid explosives can pose a danger,” Greene added, recalling Ramzi Yousef’s 1994 detonation of a small nitroglycerine bomb aboard Philippine Airlines Flight 434. The explosion was a test run for the so-called “Project Bojinka,” an Al Qaeda scheme to simultaneously destroy a dozen widebody airliners over the Pacific Ocean. “But the idea that confiscating someone’s toothpaste is going to keep us safe is too ridiculous to entertain.”
Yet that’s exactly what we’ve been doing. The three-ounce container rule is silly enough — after all, what’s to stop somebody from carrying several small bottles each full of the same substance — but consider for a moment the hypocrisy of T.S.A.’s confiscation policy. At every concourse checkpoint you’ll see a bin or barrel brimming with contraband containers taken from passengers for having exceeded the volume limit. Now, the assumption has to be that the materials in those containers are potentially hazardous. If not, why were they seized in the first place? But if so, why are they dumped unceremoniously into the trash? They are not quarantined or handed over to the bomb squad; they are simply thrown away. The agency seems to be saying that it knows these things are harmless. But it’s going to steal them anyway, and either you accept it or you don’t fly.
But of all the contradictions and self-defeating measures T.S.A. has come up with, possibly none is more blatantly ludicrous than the policy decreeing that pilots and flight attendants undergo the same x-ray and metal detector screening as passengers. What makes it ludicrous is that tens of thousands of other airport workers, from baggage loaders and fuelers to cabin cleaners and maintenance personnel, are subject only to occasional random screenings when they come to work.
These are individuals with full access to aircraft, inside and out. Some are airline employees, though a high percentage are contract staff belonging to outside companies. The fact that crew members, many of whom are former military fliers, and all of whom endured rigorous background checks prior to being hired, are required to take out their laptops and surrender their hobby knives, while a caterer or cabin cleaner sidesteps the entire process and walks onto a plane unimpeded, nullifies almost everything our T.S.A. minders have said and done since September 11th, 2001. If there is a more ringing let-me-get-this-straight scenario anywhere in the realm of airport security, I’d like to hear it.
I’m not suggesting that the rules be tightened for non-crew members so much as relaxed for all accredited workers. Which perhaps urges us to reconsider the entire purpose of airport security:
The truth is, regardless of how many pointy tools and shampoo bottles we confiscate, there shall remain an unlimited number of ways to smuggle dangerous items onto a plane. The precise shape, form and substance of those items is irrelevant. We are not fighting materials, we are fighting the imagination and cleverness of the would-be saboteur.
Thus, what most people fail to grasp is that the nuts and bolts of keeping terrorists away from planes is not really the job of airport security at all. Rather, it’s the job of government agencies and law enforcement. It’s not very glamorous, but the grunt work of hunting down terrorists takes place far off stage, relying on the diligent work of cops, spies and intelligence officers. Air crimes need to be stopped at the planning stages. By the time a terrorist gets to the airport, chances are it’s too late.
In the end, I’m not sure which is more troubling, the inanity of the existing regulations, or the average American’s acceptance of them and willingness to be humiliated. These wasteful and tedious protocols have solidified into what appears to be indefinite policy, with little or no opposition. There ought to be a tide of protest rising up against this mania. Where is it? At its loudest, the voice of the traveling public is one of grumbled resignation. The op-ed pages are silent, the pundits have nothing meaningful to say.
The airlines, for their part, are in something of a bind. The willingness of our carriers to allow flying to become an increasingly unpleasant experience suggests a business sense of masochistic capitulation. On the other hand, imagine the outrage among security zealots should airlines be caught lobbying for what is perceived to be a dangerous abrogation of security and responsibility — even if it’s not. Carriers caught plenty of flack, almost all of it unfair, in the aftermath of September 11th. Understandably, they no longer want that liability.
As for Americans themselves, I suppose that it’s less than realistic to expect street protests or airport sit-ins from citizen fliers, and maybe we shouldn’t expect too much from a press and media that have had no trouble letting countless other injustices slip to the wayside. And rather than rethink our policies, the best we’ve come up with is a way to skirt them — for a fee, naturally — via schemes like Registered Traveler. Americans can now pay to have their personal information put on file just to avoid the hassle of airport security. As cynical as George Orwell ever was, I doubt he imagined the idea of citizens offering up money for their own subjugation.
How we got to this point is an interesting study in reactionary politics, fear-mongering and a disconcerting willingness of the American public to accept almost anything in the name of “security.” Conned and frightened, our nation demands not actual security, but security spectacle. And although a reasonable percentage of passengers, along with most security experts, would concur such theater serves no useful purpose, there has been surprisingly little outrage. In that regard, maybe we’ve gotten exactly the system we deserve."
This piece comes from an airline pilot, who obviously has an outstanding grasp of the issues. Think that airport security will change anytime soon? Doubtful...
Another Reason To Be A Doomer
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Peak Oil For The Holidays!
Friday, December 14, 2007
More Juicy Quotes On The Planet's Meterological Miscreant...
“My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali.”--Al Gore, Nobel Prize recipient.
“The best we hoped for was that the U.S. would not hobble the rest of the world from moving forward,” said Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit American organization. “Our delegation here from the States has not been able to meet that low level of expectation.”
To remind readers, once again, the people have spoken (probably more than once) and those in the US have gotten exactly the government they wanted and deserve. Have a nice weekend.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
U.S. Chooses Oblivion
“Logic requires that we listen to the science,” said Stavros Dimas, the European Union’s environment commissioner. “I would expect others to follow that logic.” (C'mon, Stavros, don't you realize you're dealing with the US, or more correctly, Idiot America? Science is viewed with suspicion here)
Countries have a choice between a comprehensive agreement or “oblivion”--Ban Ki-moon, U.N. Secretary General.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Just Another Day In Idiot America
Favorite Malapropisms And Their Reflections On Users
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Predatory Nation, Chapter 8: Zombie Debts
Scott Burns Says, "Time to Leave"
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Wow! Another Reason To Leave...
A Wonderful Holiday Video, From Japan
Monday, November 12, 2007
A Monday Morning Rant
Monday, November 05, 2007
Government Mendacity: Beyond The Age of Petroleum
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
U.S. Carbon "Footprints," State by State
Friday, October 19, 2007
Straight Talk About Gambling: James Howard Kunstler
"The current mania to expand legalized gambling around the country is a clear symptom of how desperate and crazy this society has become. In a culture where anything goes and nothing matters, it is perhaps hard for the public to understand what's wrong with it. The gambling "industry" itself has very successfully masked its pernicious nature by putting across the idea that it is just another form of innocent "entertainment," on a par with pro sports, theme parkery, and Hollywood. In fact, gambling, or "gaming," as it cynically calls itself, has hijacked elements of all these other activities to conceal its main business, which is the systematic hosing of those who can least afford to be hosed.
What's wrong with state-sponsored gambling is simple: it promotes the idea -- inconsistent with the realities of the universe -- that it's possible to get something for nothing. It is unhealthy to an extreme for a society to make this idea normal because it defeats another idea that a society absolutely depends on for survival -- namely that earnest effort matters. It conditions the public to magical thinking -- a characteristic of children-- and disables their ability to function as adults. The expansion of gambling is especially tragic at a time when this society faces epochal economic problems that threaten its existence, and by this I mean the permanent global energy crisis that will require us to reorganize virtually all the crucial activities of daily life. This is a time when the nation can least afford to disable adult thinking and earnest effort." (emphasis Chaos')
Chaos has often thought that the nature of the issues rapidly approaching demands the absolute best thinking, and most assuredly not the dysfunctional business as usual approach. Corrollary: irrational, magical thinking crowds out rational responses. In light of these premises, now view the culture of the US as it really is: celebrity-obsessed, crazily religious, media-saturated, and optimistic without basis. Shiver, readers.

