Tuna Becomes Extinct in the Med

For those who have been following the issue, this latest is no surprise: bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean, previously numerous enough to constitute a tourist attraction, are down 80% and expected to become extinct due to overfishing. The ultimate cause, as well, is no surprise to faithful readers or those who are familiar with Dr. Bartlett's work: the sheer weight of human populations naturally produces this result (along with many others; the visibility of the vanishing tuna is why this article appears; smaller, yet still compelling examples can easily be found). What Chaos finds depressing about this is the inevitability: population control will not take hold in time for species extinction, wildlife habitat destruction, arable land desertification, pollution of air water and soil, human conflict and dieoff.

Entropy Rules in the Middle East

(Sigh) Where to begin? On a day when the most volatile region of the world is aflame with ancient and contemporary hatred, bombs, rockets and machine gun fire aplenty, perhaps it is appropriate to revisit that 'bottomless catastrophe,' Iraq. Courtesy of The London Times, a viewpoint readers in the Empire aren't likely to encounter, it seems that residents of the city of Baghdad have givnen up the struggle and are streaming out of the country in droves (well, more like 800,000, creating the largest group of refugees on the planet). The relentless sectarian warfare defies American and Iraqi government efforts at "reconciliation," a concept foreign to religious zealots.

American Values #4: We Have No Friends, Anymore

Yes, it's true: Americans now have fewer friends than 20 years ago. A study published in American Sociology Review finds that close friends are down, and people who have no one to confide in are up to the tune of 25%. For those who believe that the country will soon face major challenges in energy and resource depletion, this trend is not encouraging. Perhaps friends in other countries will fill the breach? Think again, as the Empire's image continues to fall worldwide. Even staunch supporters like Japan have rethought their previously sympathetic position. Ich bein ein berliner, indeed.

The Long View: David Price

To pull back from our at-the-moment perspective, the essay of Dr. David Price on Energy and Human Evolution, although now clearly dated, begs our attention. Since the "reality-based" life forms among us have already embraced the process of the Origin of Species, a remaining question is why? Price provides the answers here: our species, the most efficient user of energy on Earth, evolved in response to the vast amounts of energy (carbon) stored on the planet. Humanity's use of fire and fossil fuels has accelerated this use of energy. As the energy is consumed, human populations have exploded; overshoot and dieoff is now inevitable, much like the behavior of yeast in sugar or the reindeer of St. Matthew Island. Fossil fuels are now being used up 100,000 times faster than they are being formed. (Perhaps this is why talk of "sustainability" makes Chaos uncomfortable...) Similarly, the decline in human population given this context is evidence of eventual collapse, since per-capita energy growth has now come to a standstill. Price believes that the collapse will be marked by havoc caused by starvation, social strife, and disease, all of which interact in multiple and complex ways to cause dieoff of most, but perhaps not all, of the human population. Have a nice day, gentle readers.

Chaos

An Immigration Interlude: Don't Confuse the Issues With Facts!

To briefly interrupt our exploration of American values, let us now consider the oft-cited work of Harvard scholars Borjas and Katz, who have produce this paper on the history of (mostly Hispanic) immigration and its consequences to the Empire. Chaos has watched the demagogery on both sides of this issue escalate to extreme levels, without corresponding understanding or historical context. To the contrary, emotion seems to be the main driver of the progress, if any, of this issue, a fine recipe for polarization (does this sound familar? abortion, perhaps? look at the progress that's been made on that one...). Chaos suggests a more fact and data-based approach, as exemplified by the cited article, might dampen the hysteria levels. Alas, not much of a market for rational discourse exists in the prevailing climate.

American Values #3: Living Within Our Means

Once upon a time, American citizens saved a portion of their income. Likewise, their government was a net creditor to other nations, exporting more than it imported. Over the last fifteen years or so, these conditions are no longer so. The Empire is now a debtor nation, relying upon foreign central banks to accept and hold large numbers of dollars and exporting less than it imports (other than food and weapons, what is the Empire actually producing these days? Wags say that the buying and selling of homes to each other now constitutes the major portion of the country's economy...). Similarly, the US savings rate has fallen from 7.5% to below zero in that time period. The practice of using one's home as an ATM has long been noted as unsustainable, an effect of an asset (real estate) bubble. As with most things, there is usually an unpleasant day of reckoning: in this case, the gradual decline of the dollar relative to other currencies, a very slow--so as not to cause a crash--shift away by the foreign central banks, and a steep rise in foreclosures as interest rates begin their inevitable rise. This will come at a particularly inopportune time: the Empire will need more funds to keep afloat. Let us once again note that this is only the beginning as the Empire and its citizens rediscover reality with an extended visit to the House of Pain: Social Security and Medicare are going to begin paying out more than they take in as the bulging Boomer generation retires in a financial fog, believing that a magical, mythical pension will appear and take care of them. Chaos believes that this generation still has lessons to (re)learn, particularly about getting something for nothing and "old fashioned" values like thrift.

American Values #2: Civil Rights

The issue of deteriorating civil rights of the Empire's citizens (with, for the most part, their willing acquiescence) is not a new one, and may in part be explained as a somewhat inevitable consequence of increasing population. (Let us recall a "Bartlettism": more people=less freedom). Just last week, however, a further "breakthough" in the downward spiral appeared, in the form of the newly constituted Supreme Court's decision to throw out a 50 year precedent of excluding evidence obtained by police in violation of Constitutional rights (known, appropriately enough, as the "exclusionary rule"). It is considered by legal scholars that the sanction of exclusion of evidence serves as a, and perhaps the only, legal deterrent to police misconduct (Scalia's feeble attempt to portray police disciplinary action and civil rights lawsuits as viable remedies only points out how far from reality this opinion strays). At any rate, a significant step in the devolution of freedom, and aside from a few stories and even fewer protests, this decision has since sunk below the surface of the national "pool" of conversation. Chaos can only conclude that the citizens of the Empire have reached the point of no return in somnolence. Civil rights are gradually going extinct, as surely as the buffalo.

American Values #1: Free and Fair Elections

Recently the Emperor, while vainly trying to end the impasse on immigration, remarked to a group of would-be citizens that immigrants "should learn American values" if they want to stay here. Which got Chaos to thinking: exactly what are these "American values" anyway? Not the ones that Chaos grew up with, but the ones exhibited now. To that end, here's the first one: elections untainted by rigging, tampering, vote manipulation, and various other skullduggery. Surely that is an American value if there ever was one. Well, not really so much, as those who have subscriptions to Rolling Stone and/0r spend way too much time surfing the Web have recently discovered. A blazing indictment of the 2004 Presidential election, particularly in the battleground state of Ohio, written by Robert F. Kennedy,Jr.,has caused those of us who pay attention to realize that free and fair elections here in the Empire are only a sometime thing. Since the silence of the mainstream media and the public is somewhat deafening, one can only conclude that untainted elections are more or less a thing of the past. More explorations of American values will follow.

Peak Oil Hits the Comedy Circuit

Here's proof that being a doomer doesn't mean you can't laugh...Robert Newman's very funny take (if you're into British humor) on the last 80 years or so of oil and the Middle East. Chaos apologizes in advance to those who don't have the "high speed connection" necessary, but it's worth the wait.

Hurricanes Wipe Out Oil Production: US Vulnerable

Here's an excellent and sober synopsis, done by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, of just how dependent the US Empire is on foreign oil, and why. In brief: all our oil "partners" have major supply/political/logistical problems, and the only growing source of new US oil production comes from the Gulf of Mexico, which is vulnerable to (you guessed it) hurricanes, which are on the rise, along with the temperatures. Makes for a pretty picture: peak oil, and its evil twin, global warming.

Climber Dies On Everest; Population Control

"As you put more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears..."
--Dr. Albert Bartlett

If Chaos' faithful readers (are there any?) have kept up with our journey towards greater and greater entropy, they have come across this lecture by Dr. Albert Bartlett on the inevitable consequences of exponential growth in a world of finite resources. (To those of you who still believe that the Earth's resources are in effect, infinite, you are quite behind and need to catch up--Chaos suggests you read January 12, 2006's post and watch the video link provided therein). The most profound observation of Bartlett's, however, deals with the effects of population growth: "democracy cannot survive overpopulation...human dignity cannot survive overpopulation." Bartlett uses a metaphor: two people in an apartment with two bathrooms, you have "freedom of the bathroom." Twenty people in the apartment, you can't have freedom of the bathroom, no matter how much people believe in the freedom of the bathroom. Fast forward to today's paper of record, in which a climber on Everest died (of exposure, Chaos assumes) whilst some 40 other climbers simply walked on by. The contrast between the first summit in 1953 and today is stunning: Sir Edmund Hilary is quoted as stating that climbers today just don't get it; there was no possibility of anyone in his party, had they been injured, being left behind on the original expedition. Chaos can think of no more compelling example of the disastrous consequences of overpopulation than this.

An Assault on the School System!

This is just too rich to pass up....seems a couple of mischievous high-schoolers thought it funny to serve up some marijuana-laced brownies to teachers in Dallas. What do you suppose were the end results of this juvenile prank? If you guessed "assault on a public servant--third degree felony prosecution" congratulations, you probably live in Texas or one of the equally red states, because that's just what happened. Curiously, it's the "fringe" events like this that persuade Chaos that a sentient force of nature would perhaps be happier in different locales (Costa Rica, New Zealand, Canada, and the French countryside come to mind).

The Gas Price Fiasco Continues, GM XLT Edition

Since stupid people do not understand complex problems, and since the Empire's automobile companies have been part of the problem and not, at any time, the solution, here's the latest entry in the "you just can't make this stuff up" department. The sadly sagging General Motors, whose fortunes have been shall we say, less than stellar, has come up with perhaps the worst response to the growing twilight of oil imaginable: The General proposes to pay the difference in price of gasoline above $1.99 per gallon for one year to buyers of grotesquely sized Suburbans, Yukon XLs, Hummers, and slowww-selling Buick Lacrosses. Chaos has had no formal business training, but suspects a move like this foreshadows extreme desperation and eventual bankruptcy.

A Word (Or Two) From James Lovelock

Chaos recently mentioned James Lovelock and his book, The Revenge of Gaia, in a collapse-themed post. Currently the work is unavailable in the US, but here's a nice column from the author, which Chaos supposes captures the essence of the book. (Of course, this is from a British newspaper; the likelihood of this appearing in a major US news outlet is slim at best). Chaos would point out that the analogy of Gaia to a living organism is only that, although Lovelock appears to have carried it so far as to believe it literally.

Scuba Divers Unite! Coral Endangered

Here's another boring global warming article, centered on the Florida Keys...seems that staghorn and elkhorn coral were recently added to the threatened species list of the Endangered Species Act. Of the many reasons these corals are threatened, the most prominent is "bleaching" caused by rising ocean temperatures caused by (you guessed it) human climatological activities. Chaos supposes that the planet in the future will be much much hotter and much more barren. (Sigh) What we give up to drive our SUVs...

Views of Collapse: Christy Rodgers

"Impossible to predict, the future is."
--Yoda

The voices of the end of civilization and its resulting effects have long been noted here, specifically those of Jared Diamond and James Howard Kunstler. Now Christy Rodgers, an internet being previously unknown to Chaos, takes on these influential prognosticators, in this extended review, along with one apparently unavailable in the US, James Lovelock, author of The Revenge of Gaia. Rodgers effectively skewers both Diamond and Kunstler for their foibles; in Diamond's case it is a starry-eyed emphasis on "balance" between pessimism and optimism, the delusion that the "public" will collectively act to deal with our environmental unsustainability and a refusal to treat the present with the same rigor as his analysis of past collapses, while Rodgers saves most of her vitriol for Kunstler, who presents a set of "sketchily researched laundry list" of converging catastrophes as fact, while in general, projecting his own paranoia and prejudices into his predictions (we all remember the invading Asian pirates!). Rodgers review of Lovelock is similar: the man predicts the violent revenge of the planet for the insults done to it by humans unconcerned with their ultimate environmental effects. As Rodgers notes, this doesn't give a potential audience much to be hopeful about. As far as Chaos is aware, this is the most thoughtful critique of collapse theory at the moment, and well worth perusal (especially if you've read some of the works). Kunstler has always made Chaos somewhat uncomfortable, especially the firmness (and sometimes outrageousness) of his predictions. Likewise, Diamond's almost deliberate slighting of the effects of peak oil seems calculated to produce an untowardly optimistic result. Chaos wonders how Rodgers would view Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Civilizations.

Return From Holiday; Final Words on Gas Prices

Chaos begs pardon from faithful readers, having been on holiday and personally witnessed a portion of the devolution of the airline industry (there is now, apparently, an extra charge of $25 for 'overweight' bags, forcing Chaos to squat humiliatingly in front of the ticket counter, removing heavy items from said bag). Along with charging more for aisle seats, and attempts to develop standing room only "seats," this marks the beginning of the end of easy air travel.

Upon return, Chaos was fortunate enough to come across this exceptionally well-written open letter to the public on gas prices, courtesy of the aptly named EngineerPoet. Chaos has really nothing to add to this, save that for the chosen few, this letter will never reach its intended audience. So, fellow travelers, count yourselves among the rare and fortunate.

It's Time to...Pray for Lower Gas Prices!!

Oh, you just can't make this stuff up...according to this group, many people are "overlooking the power of prayer when it comes to resolving this energy crisis." Well then, why not have a nationwide prayer meeting to bring those gosh darn gas prices down? Guess it ranks right up there with the "magic" of ethanol to save all of us from our energy sins. These are probably the same people who believe in praying for their professional football/baseball/hockey team to win. When it comes to peak oil, it isn't the geology, it's the psychology that will insure the fate of human folk. A massive amount of denial (i.e., we're still in the "river"stage) is going to have to be wrung out of the citizens of the Empire, and it's only just starting. Is there a politician willing to tell the truth to the people of the nation? Chaos finds it highly doubtful.

We Must Do Something About These Evil Oil Companies!!

The level of discourse in this country, as Chaos has observed previously, has reached new lows in obtuseness. "You can't fix stupid," said a recent downhome wit, and it is true. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the recent reaction (on the part of the public and the corresponding politicians) to high oil prices. For those hoping that events will shock the citizens of the Empire out of their slumber, the resulting debate is profoundly depressing. Chaos is not about to stupefy you with further examples; instead, we have a ray of hope. The editors of The Oil Drum have responded with one of the finest statements of our current energy situation one could ever hope for. Chaos implores, no, begs you to read this. It is the blade with which you may slice through all the bovine excrement which passes for a national conversation in this benighted nation.

Filling Your Tank With Freedom: The SUV Driver

Since oil prices have skyrocketed to new highs recently, and political pandering by mendacious politicians has also reached a new "peak," Chaos came across this rather amusing Q&A the other day, courtesy of The Oil Drum. Enjoy!