Survey Says....US Public Infantile, Delusional

To continue on yesterday's theme (or perhaps embroider it just a bit), as gas prices head up, the clueless population of the Empire starts to whine and complain. Something must be done, they say. Of course, by "something" they mean "something that doesn't cause me pain or cost me money." If you think Chaos is being oh, a little mean, perhaps, consider these findings from a national survey undertaken for the Civil Society Institute:

"The vast majority told researchers from Opinion Research Corp. that they want sharp increases in automotive fuel economy standards, as well as new windfall profit taxes on oil companies, with the proceeds used to develop alternative fuels and to reduce dependence on unstable Mideast oil supplies." Although Americans can talk the talk, recent history demonstrates, unfortunately, that they don't walk the walk:

"Whether consumers will actually adjust their driving behavior is an open question. In the past, despite rising prices, American motorists have tended to gulp, complain, and continue their old patterns. Despite the publicity given to hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius, they still make an insignificant dent on the sales charts. And as Solo noted, during the news conference, there are now fewer cars rated at 40 mpg than just five years ago.

'People want (their) problems solved for them,' conceded Civil Society spokeswoman Ailis Aaron Wolf."

Need Chaos remind readers at this point that this national infantilism and cluelessness is likely to be a hindrance when oil begins to decline?

The World Capitol of Ignorance Marches Determinedly Backward

For those who have been paying attention to the US gasoline situation recently(the best place to follow this is, of course, The Oil Drum), it is apparent that this summer will be a painful one. Gasoline stocks are at historic lows, while consumption is up, and refining capacity remains very tight. All these signs, on the eve of the "summer driving season," (what a ridiculous concept: it's summer! let's go drive!) point to ever higher gasoline prices in the next few months. Surely in a city of approximately 1.5 million, someone other than Chaos would have noticed that more people, houses, and cars is not a particularly good idea. But wait! No, it appears the region is undergoing yet another unsustainable round of explosive, sprawling growth, as evidenced by this thoughtless article: "Population is booming in that quadrant of the county, and it's expected to grow seven times over by 2030, to more than 98,000 residents. [Other areas in the region]are growing nearly as quickly."
The key to the issue lies in this language: "Families in each household make about 10 trips a day, according to city planners. And people living in far-flung sprawling areas tend to drive farther and more often." No, really? Could that be a characteristic of suburbia, profligate energy use? You don't say! Well, wonder how high gasoline prices would affect a suburban population who feel that it is their (Constitutional, non-negotiable, god-given, birth-, or whatever) right to continue to drive as much and as far as they like? To recap Chaos' rather mild and unremarkable conclusion, geography matters. The population of the World Capitol of Ignorance are among the most clueless of any, and their angry reaction when gasoline really goes through the roof will be massive and scary.

A Look At Water Depletion In Australia

Think that oil, natural gas, uranium and coal are the only resources that are subject to permanent depletion? Sorry, but even so-called "renewable" resources can behave like nonrenewables when drawn down at unsustainable rates, which, by some coincidence, is starting to happen in many parts of the world due to (you guessed it) increasing population and resource use. Particularly in the case of the world's fresh water, this is quite a cause for concern, since water is used not only for drinking, but innumerable other uses, including industrial, and agricultural. A nice snapshot of efforts to contain profligate water use in the Murray-Darling river in South Australia is contained in this article. Chaos was heartened to read that a water conservation and use plan concerning the river was making headway, but along came a severe drought, causing all plans to grind to a halt. Interesting that the underlying problems continue not to be recognized (and certainly not ever in a mainstream publication like The Economist), but Chaos supposes that when the water runs out , as it eventually will, humans may begin to see. Best hopes for population dieoff!

Collapse Revisited: Tainter's Collapse (the abridged version)

Chaos somehow doubts that most casual readers will attempt to get through what is considered the definitive work on collapse, Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies, since it is somewhat academic and scholarly, and let's face it, who reads these days anyhow (besides Chaos)? At any rate here is a much shorter link for those who wish to know why complexity leads eventually to collapse, or at least it has in the past...or is modern industrial civilization "special" and exempt from past historical experience, much like those who insist that civilization can keep growing (and destroying the planet as it does) forever, in defiance of the laws of nature, since humans are "special."

The Inflation Monster Arises

No, Chaos is not being dramatic...a reading of today's selection will induce fear and horror, if you are a resident of the most financially profligate nation on the planet. The US economy appears to be suspended in midair, held together by nothing by hope and delusions. Its people have forgotten how to save, and its government has made promises that will bankrupt it and everyone who lives here. A sober, reasonable expectation for the future will be roaring inflation and massive tax increases. Chaos envies not at all those who will be attempting to maintain employment in the US during the next twenty years or so. Scott Burns, co-author of the excellent The Coming Generational Storm, gives us an update on the state of these so-called government "promises"--Social Security and Medicare. The cost of these two programs exceeds what will be collected in taxes by 63.675 trillion dollars, more than the market value of all land, buildings, highways, plants and equipment in the US (by about 20 trillion dollars). Chaos must emphasize that these figures are not new (well, they have gotten worse of course, since nothing has been done) since commentators like Burns have been sounding the warning for years. Chaos has no further prediction beyond the obvious above, but suggests that the other factors discussed often here will enhance the negative effects. If this subject does not incline one towards relocation, Chaos wonders what would...

Refugee Focus: Iraq

An excellent piece at the consistently prescient antiwar site Tomdispatch, written by Dahr Jamail, gives a true picture of what life in the maelstrom of Iraq is like...to cut to the chase, upwards of 1.5 million people have left the country because of the unremitting violence and chaos caused by the US invasion (another couple of million, give or take, have been internally displaced). Jamail follows some of these unfortunates into Syria, where an overwhelmed UN agency struggles vainly to provide them with the bare necessities. The statistics are staggering, but the individual interviews will make the hardhearted blush. The mainstream media in the Empire have chosen to avoid this subject and why not? The maudlin aftermath of university shootings or the Kabuki rantings and apology of a celebrity are more to the liking of the somnolent public.

Some Scary Stuff

Here's a couple of items to keep you on the edge of your seat, so to speak...

The first is "A Crude Awakening: Oil Crash," which premiered the other night on the Sundance Channel, and is set for a few more showings this weekend. A fine documentary which covers all the basics of the subject; the visualizations are scary and excellent. Gather any "nonbelievers" in your circle and plop them down in front of this one, if you can.

Our second entry comes from the blog of esteemed poster Greyzone on The Oil Drum....a near future scenario laid out in enough detail and drawing upon currently known facts. Quite fine, and frightening in its possibilities.

Enjoy your day in the Matrix, readers.

Does the Government Want You to Know About Peak Oil?

The headline above was not rhetorical, so....no, it does not. Here's the proof: the Energy Information Administration, charged with looking at all the data and coming up with predictions for energy usage and prices in the near and far future, has, well, quite a track record when it comes to prognostication. One might say Panglossian, to be kind, but at any rate, this article should enlighten those who wonder why more people aren't actually aware of how oil is going to stop flowing some day soon. From the article: "EIA’s monthly and annual predictions have only one purpose: to prevent the mainstream media from alerting the driving public to the fragility of the domestic energy picture." Yes indeed. Peruse it and weep, readers.

Friedman Savaged By Carmudgeon Realist: A Study in Contrasts

Just the other day, a long and detailed piece by the NYTimes international columnist Thomas Friedman appeared in The Magazine (a weekly feature, for those unfamiliar with the nation's paper of record), the subject of which was how development of "green energy" would lead the US out of its increasing dependency on unstable Middle East countries (which would in turn eliminate the so-called "oil curse"), put the productive capacity and brainpower of the nation to work to produce more "clean technology," which developing nations (China, India) would purchase, and simultaneously enable the US and the world to make progress on global warming.

Well.

There are many objections someone who is familiar with the issues of the end of cheap energy, global heating, and the effects of exponential growth on finite resources might make; language like this, for example, not only gives one pause but tends to undermine whatever value the rest of the article might contain:

"After World War II, President Eisenhower responded to the threat of Communism and the 'red menace' with massive spending on an interstate highway system to tie America together, in large part so that we could better move weapons in the event of a war with the Soviets. That highway system, though, helped to enshrine America’s car culture (atrophying our railroads) and to lock in suburban sprawl and low-density housing, which all combined to get America addicted to cheap fossil fuels, particularly oil. Many in the world followed our model.

Today, we are paying the accumulated economic, geopolitical and climate prices for that kind of America. I am not proposing that we radically alter our lifestyles. We are who we are — including a car culture. But if we want to continue to be who we are, enjoy the benefits and be able to pass them on to our children, we do need to fuel our future in a cleaner, greener way."(emphasis Chaos')

The effects of the continuation of ridiculously wasteful American lifestyles is obviously not going to be addressed by Friedman; why not? Perhaps Friedman's audience would find that too disturbing to consider. What soporific effect is meant by "we are who we are"? In fact, transportation uses quite a bit of energy, but simply stating that citizens may have to drive less is "beyond the scope" of this article; why? Another interesting question might be: how does an optimist like Friedman expect to handle the energy needs for the "extra" 100 million citizens of the US who are projected to "arrive" by 2050? In fact, the overall tone of the article seems calculated to induce a pleasant sensation: just a little old-fashioned American ingenuity and government incentives, and these problems will just go away. Overall, the piece is disturbing, in that it contains a bedeviling mixture of facts and delusions that together give a much more optimistic tone than is reasonably warranted by the nature of the looming multiple catastrophes. (Chaos is adopting a more strident tone in preparation for the introduction of the next writer).

Chaos will now leave off the criticism of Friedman or, more properly, turn it over to James Howard Kunstler, who addresses this piece in his weekly blog, Clusterfuck Nation. Besides being screamingly funny, the man has put it all together, in such works as The Geography of Nowhere, and The Long Emergency, both highly recommended. Chaos thinks that it might help readers to get a sense of just how large the problems are by reading Friedman's piece and Kunstler's response to it. Further, what lurks behind the NYTimes article (and many others like it in the MSM) is the plain fact that it is impossible to tell the truth to the American public. Any solutions proposed will have to account for this "energy ADHD" aspect (hint: few, if any of them do).

The Homeless Inhabit the Library: Another Sign Your Empire's Crumbling

This is a somewhat long and detailed post on the excellent Tomdispatch site, about how the homeless, lacking any sort of safety net, and suffering from mental illnesses, alcoholism, drug problems, and the like, have by necessity started permanently visiting the libraries of the Empire, turning librarians into involuntary social workers. A sort of canary in the coal mine, in Chaos' opinion and apparently also that of the author:

"America is proud of its hyper-individualism, our liberation from the bonds of tribe and the social constraints of traditional societies. We glorify the accomplishments of inventors, innovators, entrepreneurs, pioneers, and artists. But while some individuals thrive and the cutting edge of our technology is wondrous, the plight of the chronically homeless tells me that our communities are also fragmented and disintegrating. We may have gained the world and lost each other."

And this:

"What do you think about a culture that abandons suffering people and expects them to fend for themselves on the street, then criminalizes them for expressing the symptoms of illnesses they cannot control?"

What do you think, readers? An isolated event, an unfortunate byproduct of our success, or a sign of the beginning of the collapse of the Empire? Chaos suggests, once again, to pay attention to the actions of the culture, not the "values" it proclaims it has.

Tinfoil Hat Edition: Conspiracies to Entertain

As has been mentioned, Chaos is not a fan of conspiracies (secrets seem to have a way of spilling out, despite best efforts of all involved; most plans require a degree of interconnectedness and coordination which seems unlikely given the general level of incompetence), but here are a couple for your own amusement. The first posits that the primary reason the US attacked Iraq was to install a secret pipeline to Saudi Arabia to shore up its lagging oil production (if "lagging Saudi oil production" is new to you, spend more time at The Oil Drum). Baldly stating it here does not do the piece justice; the connection of the dots is somewhat interesting and even compelling for the less skeptical. Next up is a piece from Jim Puplava's site; more of a speculative analysis of the coming resource wars and competitions between nations than an actual conspiracy, but mildly entertaining nonetheless, and perhaps an introduction to the Puplava site (he has hosted Simmons, Kunstler, and others on his radio shows). Oh, and here's an interesting piece on just how fragmented, incomplete and ridiculously secretive the "terror database" is. Woe be to you if you have the same or similar name to that of someone on the list, but well, that's just life in the Empire, isn't it? Well, there you have it, then, some current conspiracy stuff to entertain. Chaos does not recall noting the classic ones (now more than a year old, but not stale yet), like Halliburton's $385m contract to build refugee camps for some unknown reason here in the Empire(confirmed), or the Emperor's purchase of a 98,000 ranch in Paraguay(speculative).

The State of Our Psyches: Chaos Makes a Suggestion

Recently, Chaos started thinking about what, in someone else's words, a "sane and sober nation" would do in response to peak oil...not the most drastic, expensive, iffy, or politically inexpedient actions, mind you, but in fact the opposite: the quickest,easiest, cheapest, most innocuous, and least controversial moves the most wasteful nation on earth could make. Chaos' response was this: lower speed limits to 55 mph. Seems like a no-brainer, no? By simply driving slower, the Empire could save probably 5-15% of gasoline usage without further discomfort (estimates are mostly Chaos' semi-wild-ass guesses, backed up by cursory internet research...). In fact, this action has been tried before, back in the energy-constrained 1970s. Yes, yes, people hated to drive slower, but it worked anyway (also saved many lives, but this is not in itself an argument for the implementation) so the effects are already known. In order to further this thought experiment, Chaos posted this suggestion on the premier site for the study of Peak Oil, the Oil Drum (the thread entitled H2Car: Another Blind Alley) and awaited response. Among the most energy-enlightened individuals on the net, quite a lot of resistance emerged to this idea. Posters challenged how much conservation would result, stated that people would not obey the limit, thus leading to more accidents, invoked Jevon's Paradox (more savings would drive the price down, leading to more consumption), and questioned whether in fact such an idea would ever be politically viable since people have such a "visceral reaction" to the previous 55 mph speed limit. To this, Chaos can only say: wow. The levels of denial here in the Matrix are much deeper than
even a slow-crash doomer like Chaos had even suspected. Read the thread and ponder the cacaphony that will surely ensue once the world starts down the slope of declining oil production. It won't be pretty, and it may be ugliest right here in the richest nation on earth. For a fine example of same, check out this article in the paper of record on how residents of the Empire are shrugging off recent gasoline price increases (the comments by the woman at the end are particularly striking).

The Aliens Approach...

(Click to enlarge)

The Rapidly Aging Face of China

An interesting article in today's Times emphasizes what astute demographers already know: China's population is projected to begin quickly aging, more than any other "major" nation...this phenomenon will have consequences for this newly industrializing country, specifically finding the resources to care for an enormous population of retirees. (Since everything in China is on a grand scale, the estimated numbers are upwards of 430 million people. It should go without saying that China's pensions system is dysfunctional ("fragmentary" is the term used in the article, sadly without more exposition) and lacks sufficient funding (financial tricks are hinted at), and the peasant tradition of younger people caring for the elderly has fallen by the wayside in the wake of the massive economic expansion that has taken place within the last 20 years, but the demographics does much to explain why the country seems so frantic to "become rich"--there is a limited time before the aging population will begin to consume most of the resources. Perhaps no other country will be more fascinating to observe over the next 20-30 years, Chaos believes, save that of the US.

Promoters of Death

Not many better ways to say this, but the current issue facing the reddest of the red states involves the not-quite-mandatory vaccination of prepubescent girls for HPV, an STD which causes cervical cancer and is responsible for several hundred thousand deaths worldwide. A recently developed vacccine promises to reduce said deaths, and in a rare burst of enlightenment, the governor of Texas issued an order promulgating the vaccine for girls.(The order is frequently described as "mandatory," but in fact is nothing of the sort: parents may opt out of its administration). A firestorm of controversy ensued. A most thoughtful, if political, acquaintance of Chaos' raised what seemed to be legitimate questions about the vaccine's efficacy and the troubling relationship between the governor and the big pharma company promoting it. This position may be valid, and certainly should be the basis for a reasoned debate, but kindly recall what state Chaos is speaking of...in point of fact, the debate will proceed solely on the absurd fundamentalist position that the administration of the vaccine will lead to more promiscuity (Chaos can only shake his head as these words appear on the screen...). Chaos likes following this issue because of its purity: the stark face of how religion promotes death by attempting to regulate others' sexual behavior. Chaos' prediction: no vaccine for Texas girls, and some will die because of it.

A Thought From Matt Savinar: Synchronicity

"I think an individual's geographic location will be responsible for 80% plus of how this [Peak Oil]plays out for them." --recent comment by Savinar on The Oil Drum

This gentleman, a published author and licensed attorney, is the owner/operator of the website After The Oil Crash. Readers are invited to peruse the site of a true doomer, but isn't it interesting that a similar conclusion has been reached, apparently independently, by both he and Chaos regarding what individuals can do in response to the looming "human induced extinction event?"

From the Oracle of Omaha: Words of Warning

Chaos has previously featured the folksy, yet ever so sagacious remarks of the greatest stockpicker in the land, Warren Buffett, through his annual shareholders letter, and this year, the Great One has more concerns about the spiraling foreign account deficits the Empire is currently producing:(pdf document in link)

"our citizens [in the future] will also be forced every year to ship a significant portion of their current production abroad merely to service the cost of our huge debtor position. It won't be pleasant to work part of each day to pay for the over-consumption of your ancestors. I believe that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters will find this annual 'tribute' so onerous that there will be a severe political backlash. How this will play out in markets is impossible to predict--but to expect a 'soft landing' seems like wishful thinking."

Yet another unwitting reason to consider a more fiscally responsible nation to reside in...

Still Another View of Escape From Empire

As Chaos has noted previously, we greatly admire our friend Joe Bageant for his searing and very funny writing about life in the ever-so-slowly collapsing Empire. Chaos has even greater respect for the man since he decided to "walk the walk" and exit the Empire for a hut in Belize (leaving behind his unaware spouse, who apparently could not break free of the Matrix...). Here's Joe's first take and musings on life in a different place, far away from the corrosive "values" of the Empire. If for nothing else, be entertained today, readers. (For an additional interesting contrast between Germany and the US, look up posts by "Expat" on The Oil Drum).

The Most Mendacious Oil Article Ever?

Here is Reason #23 why the world, and the US in particular, will continue to drive merrily off the cliff of Peak Oil: articles such as the one appearing in the nation's paper of record are at best irresponsible and careless with the truth, and at worst (in the opinion of some who see conspiracies more often than Chaos) are a manifestation of the MSM, housing, oil and motor vehicle industries' desire to continue business as usual (the "Iron Triangle," according to one wag). Chaos would not project quite that far, noting that some excellent articles on the subject have in fact appeared in the MSM in the past year, but still cannot help but observe that a granite wall of denial surrounds most coverage of oil issues (of course, enabled by the US public, which desires to keep its easy motoring lifestyle no matter what...) To read the article debunked, go here (scroll down to seventh comment or so...).

Our Final Visit To The Hill Of Shame

The former Mountain of Shame, now shrunk to a mere hill, has contaminated five wells of vital Edwards aquifer water, as efforts to extinguish it and "make it go away" are perhaps finally bearing fruit (albeit at a huge cost). Unfortunately, the ignorance, apathy and indifference to environmental destruction symbolized by this monolith will remain embedded within the local population, driving its monster trucks and SUVs, growing ever more obese by gorging on cheap and empty corn-fed fast food, happily and unconsciously shopping for more cheap junk to bring meaning into their empty lives, or taking refuge in the cult of celebrity worship or primitive religious rites. This, as news comes that Saudi Arabia's oil production declined 8% last year. Read the link, ponder, and then take a drive out in traffic today, readers: experience the Matrix at its most powerful.